TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadim Komar vs Serhii Balabei 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vadim Komar
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111121210611811
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Komar above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Komar 76–83 Serhii Balabei Vadim Komar has won 76 of their 159 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
76-83 in 159
Balabei
Correct
gap of 7 in 159, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Komar 1837 vs Balabei 1946
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Komar 60% vs Balabei 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Komar 30% vs Balabei 50%
Balabei
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Komar +2 · Balabei +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKomar 1.83 / Balabei 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Balabei)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13172978
Komar1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Balabei1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKomar4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
8 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKomar75%3 of 4
AwayBalabei83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Komar4Balabei6n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S2Komar7Balabei3n = 10Komar took 7 of 10
S3Komar5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Komar3Balabei5n = 8Balabei took 5 of 8
S5Komar3Balabei5n = 8Balabei took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKomarBalabeiK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.745.8−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKomarBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 603 vs 512 / 100739.1%50.8%236 / 603 vs 512 / 1007Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKomar 1.83/Balabei 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 16:00V. Komar4141112682S. Balabei451121011113
LSep 18 · 15:00V. Komar501111111162S. Balabei53913137113
LSep 11 · 17:02V. Komar51314119142S. Balabei541112411163
WSep 11 · 16:00V. Komar48118116123S. Balabei42811211102
LAug 29 · 09:30V. Komar484111211102S. Balabei48116145123
WAug 28 · 14:00V. Komar44111129113S. Balabei45119101142
LAug 26 · 09:00V. Komar541111813112S. Balabei541361111133
LAug 25 · 15:00V. Komar158160S. Balabei331111113
WAug 22 · 14:00V. Komar52151346143S. Balabei5813111111122
WAug 20 · 10:38V. Komar341211113S. Balabei2610970
V. Komar10
WSep 22 · 15:00R. Horokh1.53119531V. Komar2.3851111113WSep 22 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko2.00931171V. Komar1.7311119113LSep 22 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.531111113V. Komar2.385880WSep 19 · 09:00I. Shyndel1.368960V. Komar3.001111113LSep 19 · 07:30S. Ponomarenko1.0511119113V. Komar8.50681161LSep 19 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko2.0011119123V. Komar1.738811101LSep 19 · 05:00D. Kryshtal1.571111113V. Komar2.255760LSep 18 · 17:28S. Ponomarenko1.051111113V. Komar8.507370LSep 18 · 16:00V. Komar8.5091080S. Ponomarenko1.051112113LSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162
S. Balabei10
WSep 22 · 16:59S. Balabei1.50121211113D. Kryshtal2.5010101381WSep 22 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.63811111142S. Balabei1.44111343113WSep 22 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.25119281S. Balabei1.3391111113LSep 22 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.915860WSep 21 · 16:58S. Balabei1.8312114133R. Horokh1.8310711111LSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860LSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25101111113S. Balabei1.33124491WSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.381112121542S. Balabei1.537141413113WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162
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