TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Kryshtal vs Serhii Balabei 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Dmytro Kryshtal
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111113114113411
Serhii Balabei
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Balabei to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Kryshtal above · Serhii Balabei below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 87 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Balabei at 66.5%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kryshtal 42–83 Serhii Balabei Dmytro Kryshtal has won 42 of their 125 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Balabei
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-83 in 125
Balabei
Correct
gap of 41 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryshtal 1909 vs Balabei 1927
Balabei
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryshtal 60% vs Balabei 40%
Kryshtal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryshtal 50% vs Balabei 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryshtal +2 · Balabei +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Balabei) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryshtal 2.63 / Balabei 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Balabei)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13172935
Kryshtal2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog28% won 77 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back12% 20 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 125
Balabei1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 194 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it96% 95 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it86% 139 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryshtal4wins
AwayBalabei6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryshtal75%3 of 4
AwayBalabei83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryshtal4Balabei6n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S2Kryshtal2Balabei8n = 10Balabei took 8 of 10
S3Kryshtal5Balabei5n = 10split evenly
S4Kryshtal3Balabei4n = 7Balabei took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryshtalBalabeiK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.435.9−1.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryshtalBalabeiBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 772 vs 510 / 100543.4%50.8%335 / 772 vs 510 / 1005Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiKryshtal 2.63/Balabei 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 12:30D. Kryshtal311173101S. Balabei4061111123
LSep 15 · 17:01D. Kryshtal2881190S. Balabei351113113
WSep 15 · 12:30D. Kryshtal3911116113S. Balabei24431161
LSep 11 · 14:30D. Kryshtal29491151S. Balabei3711114113
LAug 31 · 17:43D. Kryshtal2896130S. Balabei371111153
WAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal531110127133S. Balabei528121011112
LAug 29 · 06:00D. Kryshtal346711101S. Balabei3711113123
WAug 28 · 12:30D. Kryshtal3711211133S. Balabei337114111
LAug 26 · 08:00D. Kryshtal248790S. Balabei331111113
WAug 25 · 13:30D. Kryshtal4181111113S. Balabei31118751
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 22 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.2512116113D. Kryshtal1.571051191WSep 22 · 13:30R. Horokh1.44914761D. Kryshtal2.63111211113WSep 22 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.531111113V. Komar2.385880LSep 19 · 10:34D. Kryshtal1.61911161S. Kushnirenko2.2011811113WSep 19 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko2.2011411462D. Kryshtal1.61611711113LSep 19 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.8013114992I. Shyndel1.911171111113LSep 19 · 06:30D. Kryshtal8.506870S. Ponomarenko1.051111113WSep 19 · 05:00D. Kryshtal1.571111113V. Komar2.255760WSep 18 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.57111011113S. Kushnirenko2.25912451LSep 18 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101112113D. Kryshtal1.611291091
S. Balabei10
WSep 22 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.25119281S. Balabei1.3391111113LSep 22 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.915860WSep 21 · 16:58S. Balabei1.8312114133R. Horokh1.8310711111LSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860LSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25101111113S. Balabei1.33124491WSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.381112121542S. Balabei1.537141413113LSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162LSep 18 · 13:30S. Balabei1.50117771D. Kryshtal2.5021111113
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