TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Balabei vs Dmytro Kryshtal 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
121012101113118––
Dmytro Kryshtal
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Dmytro Kryshtal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 87 set 4, 11-8
87 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 84–43 Dmytro Kryshtal Dmytro Kryshtal has won 43 of their 127 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Balabei beat Kryshtal 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Balabei)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balabei form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.50 / Kryshtal 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Balabei)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13179647
Balabei1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 194 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it96% 95 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it86% 139 of 162
Kryshtal2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 77 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back12% 20 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei6wins
AwayKryshtal4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBalabei leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei83.3%5 of 6
AwayKryshtal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei6Kryshtal4n = 10Balabei took 6 of 10
S2Balabei8Kryshtal2n = 10Balabei took 8 of 10
S3Balabei4Kryshtal6n = 10Kryshtal took 6 of 10
S4Balabei4Kryshtal4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiKryshtalB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.9+1.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiKryshtalBasisWin rate · lifetime512 / 1007 vs 335 / 77450.8%43.3%512 / 1007 vs 335 / 774Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalabeiBalabei 1.50/Kryshtal 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Balabei · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 14:30S. Balabei42111343113D. Kryshtal45811111142
LSep 18 · 13:30S. Balabei32117771D. Kryshtal3521111113
WSep 16 · 12:30S. Balabei4061111123D. Kryshtal311173101
WSep 15 · 17:01S. Balabei351113113D. Kryshtal2881190
LSep 15 · 12:30S. Balabei24431161D. Kryshtal3911116113
WSep 11 · 14:30S. Balabei3711114113D. Kryshtal29491151
WAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei371111153D. Kryshtal2896130
LAug 31 · 16:30S. Balabei528121011112D. Kryshtal531110127133
WAug 29 · 06:00S. Balabei3711113123D. Kryshtal346711101
LAug 28 · 12:30S. Balabei337114111D. Kryshtal3711211133
S. Balabei10
WSep 22 · 16:00V. Komar1.8341112682S. Balabei1.831121011113WSep 22 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.63811111142S. Balabei1.44111343113WSep 22 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko3.25119281S. Balabei1.3391111113LSep 22 · 12:00R. Horokh1.801111113S. Balabei1.915860WSep 21 · 16:58S. Balabei1.8312114133R. Horokh1.8310711111LSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860LSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25101111113S. Balabei1.33124491WSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.381112121542S. Balabei1.537141413113LSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 22 · 15:30S. Kushnirenko2.2512116113D. Kryshtal1.571051191LSep 22 · 14:30D. Kryshtal2.63811111142S. Balabei1.44111343113WSep 22 · 13:30R. Horokh1.44914761D. Kryshtal2.63111211113WSep 22 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.531111113V. Komar2.385880LSep 19 · 10:34D. Kryshtal1.61911161S. Kushnirenko2.2011811113WSep 19 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko2.2011411462D. Kryshtal1.61611711113LSep 19 · 08:00D. Kryshtal1.8013114992I. Shyndel1.911171111113LSep 19 · 06:30D. Kryshtal8.506870S. Ponomarenko1.051111113WSep 19 · 05:00D. Kryshtal1.571111113V. Komar2.255760WSep 18 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.57111011113S. Kushnirenko2.25912451
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