Jan Simecek Jnr vs Petr Orlowski 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Jan Simecek Jnr

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

8111191614811511

Petr Orlowski

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Petr Orlowski below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 16-14

Set 4 · 8-11

Set 5 · 5-11

Point 104 set 5, 5-11

104 points played in total.

H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 30–23 Petr Orlowski Petr Orlowski has won 23 of their 53 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Orlowski

Jnr 2.10/Orlowski 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

—

no pick shipped on this market

What happened

2–3

Orlowski won

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Orlowski: form 20%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJnr 2.10 / Orlowski 1.666

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Jnr beat Orlowski 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeJnr6wins

AwayOrlowski4wins

7 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeJnr83.3%5 of 6

AwayOrlowski75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Jnr6Orlowski4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10

S2Jnr5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly

S3Jnr4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10

S4Jnr4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10

S5Jnr5Orlowski2n = 7Jnr took 5 of 7

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home550%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricJnrOrlowskiJ − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match48.549.0−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricJnrOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 432 vs 199 / 36353%54.8%229 / 432 vs 199 / 363Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.7per match

Setka Cup · #13286615

Jnr2.10

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog45% won 33 of 73

Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37

Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19

Orlowski1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite61% won 67 of 110

Up 2–0, closes it87% 32 of 37

Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66

Jan Simecek Jnr vs Petr Orlowski 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Simecek Jnr vs Petr Orlowski 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.