Petr Orlowski vs Tomas Kanka 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Petr Orlowski

Home

1.44

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

111361112101191012

Tomas Kanka

Away

2.63

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:14 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%

Graded at full time

Petr Orlowski to win

68.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Tomas Kanka below

Set 1 · 11-13

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 11-9

Set 5 · 4-6

Point 93 set 5, 4-6 · our read held Petr Orlowski at 68.9%

93 points drawn · the score is 12 ahead; the rest land in a moment.

H2H Petr Orlowski 7–3 Tomas Kanka Tomas Kanka has won 3 of their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Orlowski

Orlowski 1.44/Kanka 2.63

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

68.9%

Orlowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Kanka won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:14

68.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 0.4pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Orlowski

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

7-3 in 10

Orlowski

Wrong

gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Orlowski 1669 vs Kanka 1561

Orlowski

Wrong

both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Orlowski 60% vs Kanka 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Orlowski 50% vs Kanka 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Orlowski -1 · Kanka +3

Kanka

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Orlowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kanka: form 60%, the price implies 38%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsOrlowski 1.444 / Kanka 2.625

Signal prob.69% / 31%

Edge (Orlowski)-0.4pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeOrlowski7wins

AwayKanka3wins

2 of 10 to a deciderOrlowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeOrlowski75%6 of 8

AwayKankan = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Orlowski8Kanka2n = 10Orlowski took 8 of 10

S2Orlowski6Kanka4n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10

S3Orlowski7Kanka3n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10

S4Orlowski2Kanka3n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricOrlowskiKankaO − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.533.0+3.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricOrlowskiKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 361 vs 191 / 39755.1%48.1%199 / 361 vs 191 / 397Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.1per match

Setka Cup · #13281561

Orlowski1.44

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite61% won 67 of 110

Up 2–0, closes it87% 32 of 37

Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66

Kanka2.63

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog35% won 37 of 105

Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64

Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40

Petr Orlowski vs Tomas Kanka 2-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Petr Orlowski vs Tomas Kanka 2-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.