Petr Orlowski vs Jan Simecek Jnr 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Petr Orlowski

Home

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

6111188111416––

Jan Simecek Jnr

Away

2.00

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 5

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Petr Orlowski to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Jan Simecek Jnr below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 14-16

Point 85 set 4, 14-16 · our read held Petr Orlowski at 54.0%

85 points played in total.

H2H Petr Orlowski 23–29 Jan Simecek Jnr Petr Orlowski has won 23 of their 52 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Orlowski

Orlowski 1.73/Jnr 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Orlowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Jnr won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:05

54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.9pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Orlowski

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

23-29 in 52

Jnr

Correct

gap of 6 in 52, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Orlowski 1682 vs Jnr 1679

Orlowski

Wrong

both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Orlowski 80% vs Jnr 100%

Jnr

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Orlowski 50% vs Jnr 80%

Jnr

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Orlowski +1 · Jnr +5

Jnr

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Orlowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Jnr: form 100%, the price implies 50%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsOrlowski 1.727 / Jnr 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Orlowski)-3.9pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeOrlowski4wins

AwayJnr6wins

8 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeOrlowski60%3 of 5

AwayJnr80%4 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Orlowski5Jnr5n = 10split evenly

S2Orlowski5Jnr5n = 10split evenly

S3Orlowski6Jnr4n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10

S4Orlowski6Jnr4n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10

S5Orlowski2Jnr6n = 8Jnr took 6 of 8

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away660%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricOrlowskiJnrO − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match49.949.2+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricOrlowskiJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 360 vs 228 / 42955.3%53.2%199 / 360 vs 228 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.4per match

Setka Cup · #13281490

Orlowski1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 11)

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite61% won 67 of 110

Up 2–0, closes it87% 32 of 37

Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66

Jnr2.00

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 08)

Won last 5

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As underdog45% won 33 of 73

Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37

Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19

Petr Orlowski vs Jan Simecek Jnr 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Petr Orlowski vs Jan Simecek Jnr 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.