TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Simecek Jnr vs Zdenek Kuksa 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:43 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Zdenek Kuksa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 60.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 5–4 Zdenek Kuksa Zdenek Kuksa has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4360.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1647 vs Kuksa 1581
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Kuksa 40%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Kuksa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Kuksa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Jnr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.571 / Kuksa 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jnr)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261255
Jnr1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite62% won 61 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 47 of 59
Kuksa2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 47 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayKuksa4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderJnr leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr83.3%5 of 6
AwayKuksa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr6Kuksa3n = 9Jnr took 6 of 9
S2Jnr3Kuksa6n = 9Kuksa took 6 of 9
S3Jnr6Kuksa3n = 9Jnr took 6 of 9
S4Jnr4Kuksa3n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S5Jnr1Kuksa2n = 3Kuksa took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricJnrKuksaJ − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match37.836.3+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrKuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 426 vs 267 / 51652.8%51.7%225 / 426 vs 267 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.57/Kuksa 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 5 · 20:18J. Jnr4111811113Z. Kuksa31611771
WOct 5 · 18:45J. Jnr4011117113Z. Kuksa30751171
LAug 16 · 08:58J. Jnr228770Z. Kuksa331111113
WAug 16 · 07:00J. Jnr341111123Z. Kuksa2899100
WJul 18 · 07:30J. Jnr4311911123Z. Kuksa345118101
LJun 27 · 08:44J. Jnr3811116552Z. Kuksa45481111113
LJun 27 · 06:15J. Jnr27431191Z. Kuksa3711114113
LJan 24 · 12:30J. Jnr4794141192Z. Kuksa541111129113
WJan 17 · 09:00J. Jnr48118117113Z. Kuksa3561161112
J. Jnr10
WOct 8 · 19:15D. Brichacek1.57115991J. Jnr2.2591111113WOct 8 · 17:45J. Jnr1.571111113P. Rucky2.258390WOct 5 · 20:18J. Jnr1.6711811113Z. Kuksa2.10611771LOct 5 · 19:45M. Hajek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110471WOct 5 · 18:45Z. Kuksa1.91751171J. Jnr1.8011117113LOct 5 · 17:15L. Provaznik1.4011115113J. Jnr2.75971191WOct 4 · 08:43J. Jnr1.91201288113P. Orlowski1.801810111192WOct 4 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.91812128102J. Jnr1.8011101011123WOct 4 · 07:00J. Jnr2.1011118113D. Brichacek1.67661181WOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181
Z. Kuksa10
WOct 8 · 17:15D. Brichacek1.3331111892Z. Kuksa3.25115311113LOct 5 · 20:18J. Jnr1.6711811113Z. Kuksa2.10611771LOct 5 · 19:15L. Provaznik1.731111113Z. Kuksa2.005580LOct 5 · 18:45Z. Kuksa1.91751171J. Jnr1.8011117113WOct 5 · 17:45Z. Kuksa2.5011118113M. Hajek1.50881151WOct 3 · 09:08Z. Kuksa1.831111811113T. Kanka1.8361311462WOct 3 · 08:00Z. Kuksa1.44111166113J. Botka2.6385111182WOct 3 · 06:30M. Taranko1.8384100Z. Kuksa1.831111123LOct 3 · 06:00T. Kanka2.381211113Z. Kuksa1.5310460WOct 2 · 20:29L. Hendrych2.386870Z. Kuksa1.531111113
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