Krzysztof Marcinowski vs Szymon Brud 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Krzysztof Marcinowski

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

8117111161012––

Szymon Brud

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Szymon Brud to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingKrzysztof Marcinowski above · Szymon Brud below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 10-12

Point 76 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Szymon Brud at 54.0%

76 points played in total.

H2H Krzysztof Marcinowski 9–8 Szymon Brud Szymon Brud has won 8 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Brud

Marcinowski 2.00/Brud 1.73

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Brud · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Brud won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 23:16

54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.9pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Brud

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

9-8 in 17

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marcinowski 1460 vs Brud 1475

Brud

Correct

both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marcinowski 60% vs Brud 40%

Marcinowski

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marcinowski 30% vs Brud 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Marcinowski +1 · Brud +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Brud) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Brud: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarcinowski 2.00 / Brud 1.727

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Brud)-3.9pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Marcinowski beat Brud 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMarcinowski5wins

AwayBrud5wins

2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarcinowski100%3 of 3

AwayBrud71.4%5 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marcinowski3Brud7n = 10Brud took 7 of 10

S2Marcinowski7Brud3n = 10Marcinowski took 7 of 10

S3Marcinowski7Brud3n = 10Marcinowski took 7 of 10

S4Marcinowski2Brud5n = 7Brud took 5 of 7

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricMarcinowskiBrudM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.236.6+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarcinowskiBrudBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 258 vs 596 / 113543.8%52.5%113 / 258 vs 596 / 1135Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match

TT Elite Series · #13284602

Marcinowski2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog31% won 10 of 32

Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9

Brud1.73

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite62% won 146 of 234

Up 2–0, closes it91% 59 of 65

Up 1–0, closes it76% 93 of 122

Krzysztof Marcinowski vs Szymon Brud 1-3 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Krzysztof Marcinowski vs Szymon Brud 1-3 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.