Krzysztof Marcinowski vs Jakub Wozniak 3-0

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Krzysztof Marcinowski

Home

1.40

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

117115118––––

Jakub Wozniak

Away

2.75

At publish

Lost last 8

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Lost last 8

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%

Graded at full time

Krzysztof Marcinowski to win

67.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingKrzysztof Marcinowski above · Jakub Wozniak below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 11-8

Point 53 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Krzysztof Marcinowski at 67.9%

53 points played in total.

H2H Krzysztof Marcinowski 8–2 Jakub Wozniak Jakub Wozniak has won 2 of their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 8–2Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Marcinowski

Marcinowski 1.40/Wozniak 2.75

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

67.9%

Marcinowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Marcinowski won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:40

67.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 3.5pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Marcinowski

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

8-2 in 10

Marcinowski

Correct

gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marcinowski 1452 vs Wozniak 1296

Marcinowski

Correct

both rated, 157 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marcinowski 40% vs Wozniak 0%

Marcinowski

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marcinowski 30% vs Wozniak 10%

Marcinowski

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Marcinowski -1 · Wozniak -8

Wozniak

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Marcinowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Wozniak: form 0%, the price implies 36%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarcinowski 1.40 / Wozniak 2.75

Signal prob.68% / 32%

Edge (Marcinowski)-3.5pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMarcinowski8wins

AwayWozniak2wins

4 of 10 to a deciderMarcinowski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarcinowski83.3%5 of 6

AwayWozniak25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marcinowski6Wozniak4n = 10Marcinowski took 6 of 10

S2Marcinowski8Wozniak2n = 10Marcinowski took 8 of 10

S3Marcinowski8Wozniak2n = 10Marcinowski took 8 of 10

S4Marcinowski4Wozniak2n = 6Marcinowski took 4 of 6

S5Marcinowski2Wozniak2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMarcinowskiWozniakM − WBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.633.1+6.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarcinowskiWozniakBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 257 vs 243 / 53543.6%45.4%112 / 257 vs 243 / 535Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match

TT Elite Series · #13279641

Marcinowski1.40

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite68% won 19 of 28

Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8

Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18

Wozniak2.75

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 10)

Lost last 8

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog31% won 36 of 116

Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74

Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40

Krzysztof Marcinowski vs Jakub Wozniak 3-0 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Krzysztof Marcinowski vs Jakub Wozniak 3-0 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.