Milan Flesar vs Jan Manhal Jr 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Milan Flesar

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

115119911911411

Jan Manhal Jr

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%

Graded at full time

Milan Flesar to win

60.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jan Manhal Jr below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 4-11

Point 91 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Milan Flesar at 60.1%

91 points played in total.

H2H Milan Flesar 5–3 Jan Manhal Jr Jan Manhal Jr has won 3 of their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 5–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Flesar

Flesar 1.57/Manhal Jr 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.1%

Flesar · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Manhal Jr won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:29

60.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 3.6pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Flesar

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-3 in 8

Flesar

Wrong

gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Flesar 1560 vs Manhal Jr 1464

Flesar

Wrong

both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Flesar 60% vs Manhal Jr 20%

Flesar

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Flesar 70% vs Manhal Jr 50%

Flesar

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Flesar +2 · Manhal Jr -4

Manhal Jr

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Flesar) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Manhal Jr: form 20%, the price implies 44%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsFlesar 1.571 / Manhal Jr 2.25

Signal prob.60% / 40%

Edge (Flesar)-3.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeFlesar5wins

AwayManhal Jr3wins

3 of 8 to a deciderFlesar leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeFlesar50%2 of 4

AwayManhal Jr25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Flesar4Manhal Jr4n = 8split evenly

S2Flesar3Manhal Jr5n = 8Manhal Jr took 5 of 8

S3Flesar6Manhal Jr2n = 8Flesar took 6 of 8

S4Flesar5Manhal Jr1n = 6Flesar took 5 of 6

S5Flesar1Manhal Jr2n = 3Manhal Jr took 2 of 3

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home113%

3–1Four sets, home338%

3–2Decider, home113%

2–3Decider, away225%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away113%

These 8 meetings

MetricFlesarManhal JrF − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.436.5+3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricFlesarManhal JrBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 487 vs 37 / 8352.6%44.6%256 / 487 vs 37 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match

TT Cup · #13283538

Flesar1.57

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

Won last 2

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite62% won 79 of 128

Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53

Up 1–0, closes it79% 67 of 85

Manhal Jr2.25

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 06)

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog41% won 17 of 42

Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13

Milan Flesar vs Jan Manhal Jr 2-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Milan Flesar vs Jan Manhal Jr 2-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.