TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Motacek vs Milan Flesar 0-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Milan Flesar at 60.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–4 Milan Flesar Tomas Motacek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0360.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Flesar
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1455 vs Flesar 1536
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 40% vs Flesar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 20% vs Flesar 60%
Flesar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +1 · Flesar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Flesar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 2.25 / Flesar 1.571
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Flesar)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273884
Motacek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 15 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Flesar1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 78 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayFlesar4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderFlesar leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMotacekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFlesar75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek1Flesar4n = 5Flesar took 4 of 5
S2Motacek2Flesar3n = 5Flesar took 3 of 5
S3Motacek0Flesar5n = 5Flesar took 5 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricMotacekFlesarM − FBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match29.039.4−10.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 85 vs 254 / 48552.9%52.4%45 / 85 vs 254 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarMotacek 2.25/Flesar 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 9 · 20:05T. Motacek185940M. Flesar331111113
WOct 1 · 19:05T. Motacek46711611113M. Flesar4611811882
LSep 28 · 15:35T. Motacek208570M. Flesar331111113
LSep 18 · 14:05T. Motacek4011118642M. Flesar50891111113
LAug 28 · 19:05T. Motacek2164110M. Flesar351111133
T. Motacek10
LOct 10 · 21:10T. Motacek1.801111791J. Horky1.9113711113WOct 10 · 19:05T. Motacek1.83114411113J. Horky1.8381111462LOct 10 · 18:05T. Motacek1.6781171262J. Martin2.101131110113LOct 9 · 21:05T. Motacek2.103680L. Vosyka1.671111113LOct 9 · 20:05M. Flesar1.801111113T. Motacek1.915940WOct 9 · 19:35J. Kabelka2.10811711T. Motacek1.6711711113LOct 9 · 18:35T. Motacek2.00741181L. Vosyka1.7311116113LOct 9 · 17:17S. Kafka1.141411113T. Motacek5.0012690LOct 9 · 16:05J. Lovl1.5711913113T. Motacek2.256111181LOct 9 · 15:35D. Hons1.911111113T. Motacek1.806870
M. Flesar10
LOct 10 · 19:35J. Martin1.6181111133M. Flesar2.201186111WOct 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.831111163J. Horky1.8366140LOct 10 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.631181111113M. Flesar1.4471181342LOct 10 · 10:35M. Flesar1.835760D. Hons1.831111113WOct 9 · 21:35M. Flesar1.5311116123J. Kabelka2.387511101WOct 9 · 20:05M. Flesar1.801111113T. Motacek1.915940WOct 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.2511101112113L. Vosyka1.5741291492WOct 9 · 18:05M. Flesar1.53111186113J. Kabelka2.3838111142WOct 8 · 21:05M. Flesar—1111113D. Hons—6770LOct 8 · 20:05M. Flesar2.001111117112D. Hons1.73135811133
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