Tomas Krcil vs Ladislav Vosyka 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Krcil

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

117411113911117

Ladislav Vosyka

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Ladislav Vosyka to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

Sent to Pro: Tomas Krcil @ 2.10 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Ladislav Vosyka below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 11-3

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 85 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Ladislav Vosyka at 54.0%

85 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Krcil 6–5 Ladislav Vosyka Ladislav Vosyka has won 5 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Krcil

Krcil 2.10/Vosyka 1.67

Hit

What we said

54%

Vosyka · sealed before the serve

Sent to Pro: Tomas Krcil @ 2.10 · Won

The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.

What happened

3–2

Krcil won

The pick

Sealed 20:10

Sent to Pro: Tomas Krcil @ 2.10 · Won

54.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 6.0pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Vosyka

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

6-5 in 11

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Krcil 1558 vs Vosyka 1510

Krcil

Correct

both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Krcil 60% vs Vosyka 40%

Krcil

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Krcil 80% vs Vosyka 50%

Krcil

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Krcil +1 · Vosyka -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vosyka) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Vosyka: form 40%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKrcil 2.10 / Vosyka 1.666

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Vosyka)-6.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKrcil5wins

AwayVosyka5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKrcil75%3 of 4

AwayVosyka66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Krcil4Vosyka6n = 10Vosyka took 6 of 10

S2Krcil2Vosyka8n = 10Vosyka took 8 of 10

S3Krcil6Vosyka4n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10

S4Krcil4Vosyka3n = 7Krcil took 4 of 7

S5Krcil2Vosyka1n = 3Krcil took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricKrcilVosykaK − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.538.0−2.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKrcilVosykaBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 308 vs 265 / 50853.3%52.2%164 / 308 vs 265 / 508Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.7per match

TT Cup · #13283413

Krcil2.10

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog55% won 24 of 44

Down 0–1, comes back35% 8 of 23

Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11

Vosyka1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite57% won 106 of 185

Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59

Up 1–0, closes it75% 73 of 97

Tomas Krcil vs Ladislav Vosyka 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Krcil vs Ladislav Vosyka 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.