Volodymyr Hainiuk vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Volodymyr Hainiuk

Home

2.38

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

11811131181311––

Vitalii Kaganovych

Away

1.53

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched: 58.4% is still 58.4%

Graded at full time

Vitalii Kaganovych to win

58.4%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingVolodymyr Hainiuk above · Vitalii Kaganovych below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-13

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 13-11

Point 86 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 58.4%

86 points played in total.

H2H Volodymyr Hainiuk 48–71 Vitalii Kaganovych Volodymyr Hainiuk has won 48 of their 119 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kaganovych

Hainiuk 2.38/Kaganovych 1.53

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.4%

Kaganovych · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Hainiuk won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:16

58.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 6.8pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Kaganovych

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

48-71 in 119

Kaganovych

Wrong

gap of 23 in 119, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Hainiuk 1394 vs Kaganovych 1353

Hainiuk

Correct

both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Hainiuk 40% vs Kaganovych 20%

Hainiuk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Hainiuk 40% vs Kaganovych 20%

Hainiuk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Hainiuk -1 · Kaganovych -3

Kaganovych

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kaganovych) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kaganovych: form 20%, the price implies 65%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHainiuk 2.375 / Kaganovych 1.533

Signal prob.42% / 58%

Edge (Kaganovych)-6.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeHainiuk4wins

AwayKaganovych6wins

3 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeHainiuk57.1%4 of 7

AwayKaganovych100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Hainiuk7Kaganovych3n = 10Hainiuk took 7 of 10

S2Hainiuk4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10

S3Hainiuk3Kaganovych7n = 10Kaganovych took 7 of 10

S4Hainiuk3Kaganovych6n = 9Kaganovych took 6 of 9

S5Hainiuk2Kaganovych1n = 3Hainiuk took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away550%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricHainiukKaganovychH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.00.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricHainiukKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 672 vs 326 / 55453.6%58.8%360 / 672 vs 326 / 554Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281604

Hainiuk2.38

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog35% won 50 of 142

Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 85

Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51

Kaganovych1.53

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite64% won 127 of 199

Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65

Up 1–0, closes it85% 87 of 103

Volodymyr Hainiuk vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

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Volodymyr Hainiuk vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.