TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valentyn Chumak vs Vitalii Kaganovych 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1159111113911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Valentyn Chumak at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 45–54 Vitalii Kaganovych Valentyn Chumak has won 45 of their 99 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:5354.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-54 in 99
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 9 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1456 vs Kaganovych 1390
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 20% vs Kaganovych 40%
Kaganovych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 50% vs Kaganovych 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak -2 · Kaganovych -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chumak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.909 / Kaganovych 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaganovych)-9.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245834
Chumak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Kaganovych1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 128 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it83% 89 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChumak5wins
AwayKaganovych5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumak80%4 of 5
AwayKaganovych80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S2Chumak5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S3Chumak5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S4Chumak4Kaganovych3n = 7Chumak took 4 of 7
S5Chumak2Kaganovych2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChumakKaganovychC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.438.7+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 558 vs 332 / 55352.5%60%293 / 558 vs 332 / 553Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychChumak 1.91/Kaganovych 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak341112113V. Kaganovych2471070
LAug 31 · 15:05V. Chumak32911931V. Kaganovych4211911113
LAug 25 · 15:05V. Chumak2811890V. Kaganovych351311113
LAug 24 · 19:05V. Chumak48811111082V. Kaganovych50118812113
WAug 18 · 16:05V. Chumak521111811113V. Kaganovych3951311732
WAug 17 · 17:05V. Chumak43101111113V. Kaganovych32127671
WAug 10 · 14:25V. Chumak49118118113V. Kaganovych4261181162
WAug 3 · 16:35V. Chumak3611113113V. Kaganovych34681191
LJul 27 · 15:55V. Chumak4264111382V. Kaganovych501111611113
V. Chumak10
LOct 5 · 17:55O. Korobov1.3611118113V. Chumak3.00561181LOct 5 · 16:55V. Chumak1.57611116132I. Yelfimov2.25114611153WOct 5 · 15:55A. Yakovenko1.44114281V. Chumak2.6391111113LOct 5 · 14:25V. Chumak1.67117341V. Hainiuk2.1081111113LOct 1 · 20:25V. Chumak1.738101161D. Boltenkov2.0011125113WOct 1 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.257980V. Chumak1.571111113LOct 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.101111123V. Chumak1.6768100WOct 1 · 15:25V. Chumak1.6711127113V. Slabyshev2.106101171WOct 1 · 14:25V. Husiev2.7511931162V. Chumak1.40911119113WSep 30 · 19:35V. Chumak1.80961211113D. Boltenkov1.91111110952
V. Kaganovych10
LOct 5 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.671111113V. Kaganovych2.109550WOct 5 · 17:25A. Yakovenko1.5358130V. Kaganovych2.381111153WOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113LOct 5 · 13:25O. Korobov1.501111113V. Kaganovych2.505780LSep 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.1011311113V. Kaganovych1.67711971WSep 29 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.501011117113V. Hainiuk2.5012751172WSep 29 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.441111133V. Sydorenko2.6359110LSep 29 · 15:05V. Kaganovych2.25861141V. Sharpai1.5711114113LSep 29 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.67101181162I. Yelfimov2.10123119113LSep 28 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.3811119113V. Kaganovych1.53581131
Upcoming Matches
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V. Kaganovych
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