TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Kaganovych vs Andrii Lifanov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7119111191012––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Andrii Lifanov at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 25–18 Andrii Lifanov Andrii Lifanov has won 18 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 17:3754.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-18 in 43
Kaganovych
Wrong
gap of 7 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1375 vs Lifanov 1544
Lifanov
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 20% vs Lifanov 100%
Lifanov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 40% vs Lifanov 70%
Lifanov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -3 · Lifanov +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lifanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lifanov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.80 / Lifanov 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lifanov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13251334
Kaganovych1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 130 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it83% 89 of 107
Lifanov1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 24 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych5wins
AwayLifanov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych60%3 of 5
AwayLifanov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych5Lifanov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaganovych6Lifanov4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S3Kaganovych3Lifanov7n = 10Lifanov took 7 of 10
S4Kaganovych6Lifanov2n = 8Kaganovych took 6 of 8
S5Kaganovych1Lifanov2n = 3Lifanov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychLifanovK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.937.6+1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 554 vs 232 / 40959.6%56.7%330 / 554 vs 232 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovKaganovych 1.80/Lifanov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lifanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 18:35V. Kaganovych34711971A. Lifanov3611311113
LSep 28 · 16:05V. Kaganovych322131161A. Lifanov46111113113
WSep 22 · 13:25V. Kaganovych4211128113A. Lifanov366101191
LSep 21 · 16:05V. Kaganovych279990A. Lifanov331111113
WSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych49911711113A. Lifanov4411911942
WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych4411813123A. Lifanov4081111101
LAug 25 · 18:35V. Kaganovych46115811112A. Lifanov52811119133
WAug 10 · 16:25V. Kaganovych43101111113A. Lifanov21122251
WAug 3 · 18:05V. Kaganovych341112113A. Lifanov2481060
LJul 31 · 19:55V. Kaganovych3811271172A. Lifanov44511116113
V. Kaganovych10
LOct 6 · 19:25V. Kaganovych1.735650F. Chashchin2.001111113LOct 6 · 16:25V. Kaganovych1.5355111122V. Hainiuk2.38111197113LOct 6 · 14:55V. Kaganovych2.10131111682I. Yelfimov1.67157911113LOct 6 · 13:25V. Kaganovych2.251156101V. Sharpai1.5781111123WOct 5 · 19:55V. Chumak1.911191191V. Kaganovych1.8051113113LOct 5 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.671111113V. Kaganovych2.109550WOct 5 · 17:25A. Yakovenko1.5358130V. Kaganovych2.381111153WOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113LOct 5 · 13:25O. Korobov1.501111113V. Kaganovych2.505780LSep 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.1011311113V. Kaganovych1.67711971
A. Lifanov10
LOct 6 · 19:55A. Lifanov1.678480V. Sharpai2.101111113WOct 6 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.4411911113I. Yelfimov2.63711351WOct 6 · 15:55F. Chashchin2.75815140A. Lifanov1.401117163WOct 6 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.401111113V. Hainiuk2.757420WSep 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.1011311113V. Kaganovych1.67711971WSep 29 · 17:05A. Lifanov1.80711117113V. Sharpai1.9111581192LSep 29 · 15:35A. Lifanov1.3671111942V. Hainiuk3.00117211113WSep 29 · 14:05A. Lifanov1.5011115113I. Yelfimov2.50691151WSep 29 · 12:35A. Lifanov1.401112113V. Sydorenko2.7571090LSep 28 · 19:05A. Lifanov1.3611980F. Chashchin3.001311113
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