TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Fedir Chashchin vs Andrii Lifanov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
81115171416––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:45 and never touched: 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 14-16
Point 81 set 3, 14-16 · our read held Andrii Lifanov at 69.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 4–12 Andrii Lifanov Fedir Chashchin has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4569.8%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.6pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lifanov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Lifanov
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1463 vs Lifanov 1517
Lifanov
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 40% vs Lifanov 80%
Lifanov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 70% vs Lifanov 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin -1 · Lifanov +3
Lifanov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Lifanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 2.75 / Lifanov 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Lifanov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251322
Chashchin2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 22 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Lifanov1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 115 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it98% 58 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 87 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChashchin2wins
AwayLifanov8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLifanov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin25%1 of 4
AwayLifanov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin4Lifanov6n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S2Chashchin4Lifanov6n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S3Chashchin4Lifanov6n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S4Chashchin2Lifanov5n = 7Lifanov took 5 of 7
S5Chashchin0Lifanov3n = 3Lifanov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChashchinLifanovC − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.140.8−3.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 203 vs 230 / 40752.7%56.5%107 / 203 vs 230 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovChashchin 2.75/Lifanov 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lifanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 28 · 19:05F. Chashchin351311113A. Lifanov2811980
LSep 15 · 16:35F. Chashchin52912118122A. Lifanov511110511143
LAug 6 · 12:35F. Chashchin381291071A. Lifanov44101112113
LJun 15 · 14:55F. Chashchin4176111162A. Lifanov47111186113
LJun 3 · 16:05F. Chashchin3911381162A. Lifanov42111118113
LMay 7 · 17:25F. Chashchin205780A. Lifanov331111113
LMay 2 · 08:55F. Chashchin2781090A. Lifanov341112113
LMar 11 · 14:55F. Chashchin448111691A. Lifanov4411418113
LMar 3 · 19:35F. Chashchin381291071A. Lifanov44101112113
F. Chashchin10
LOct 6 · 13:55F. Chashchin1.7312881182I. Yelfimov2.001011115113WSep 28 · 19:05A. Lifanov1.3611980F. Chashchin3.001311113LSep 28 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.67461111113F. Chashchin2.1011115792WSep 28 · 16:35O. Korobov1.911111351F. Chashchin1.8061311113LSep 28 · 14:35V. Hainiuk2.00511117143F. Chashchin1.73119811122WSep 28 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.40111211652F. Chashchin2.75814611113WSep 24 · 19:05F. Chashchin1.67111011113V. Sydorenko2.10412841WSep 24 · 17:05A. Azarov3.00167111172F. Chashchin1.36181123113WSep 24 · 16:05F. Chashchin1.9171111113V. Slabyshev1.80119741WSep 24 · 15:05V. Leonov2.20841161F. Chashchin1.6111119113
A. Lifanov10
WOct 6 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.401111113V. Hainiuk2.757420WSep 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.1011311113V. Kaganovych1.67711971WSep 29 · 17:05A. Lifanov1.80711117113V. Sharpai1.9111581192LSep 29 · 15:35A. Lifanov1.3671111942V. Hainiuk3.00117211113WSep 29 · 14:05A. Lifanov1.5011115113I. Yelfimov2.50691151WSep 29 · 12:35A. Lifanov1.401112113V. Sydorenko2.7571090LSep 28 · 19:05A. Lifanov1.3611980F. Chashchin3.001311113LSep 28 · 17:05V. Sharpai2.10111012113A. Lifanov1.679121091WSep 28 · 16:05A. Lifanov2.10111113113V. Kaganovych1.672131161WSep 28 · 15:05O. Korobov1.73981151A. Lifanov2.0011118113
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