TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Kaganovych vs Fedir Chashchin 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611511––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFedir Chashchin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Fedir Chashchin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 49 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Fedir Chashchin at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 12–11 Fedir Chashchin Fedir Chashchin has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 19:1254.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1369 vs Chashchin 1447
Chashchin
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 20% vs Chashchin 40%
Chashchin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 30% vs Chashchin 50%
Chashchin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -4 · Chashchin +1
Kaganovych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chashchin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.727 / Chashchin 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chashchin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13251314
Kaganovych1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 130 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it83% 89 of 107
Chashchin2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 22 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back33% 10 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych6wins
AwayChashchin4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych80%4 of 5
AwayChashchin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych5Chashchin5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaganovych6Chashchin4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S3Kaganovych1Chashchin9n = 10Chashchin took 9 of 10
S4Kaganovych7Chashchin3n = 10Kaganovych took 7 of 10
S5Kaganovych4Chashchin1n = 5Kaganovych took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychChashchinK − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.640.0+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychChashchinBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 555 vs 108 / 20659.5%52.4%330 / 555 vs 108 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChashchinKaganovych 1.73/Chashchin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chashchin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 18:05V. Kaganovych43461111113F. Chashchin4311115792
LSep 15 · 18:35V. Kaganovych33511981F. Chashchin4111811113
WSep 7 · 13:05V. Kaganovych521191011113F. Chashchin4071112462
LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych4371161182F. Chashchin45117115113
LAug 11 · 17:05V. Kaganovych399111091F. Chashchin4111712113
LJul 13 · 13:25V. Kaganovych36119881F. Chashchin4181111113
WJun 15 · 17:55V. Kaganovych4111118113F. Chashchin31741191
WJun 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych561181214113F. Chashchin44511141222
WMay 13 · 17:05V. Kaganovych4211119113F. Chashchin27451171
WMar 3 · 15:05V. Kaganovych51811911123F. Chashchin47118117102
V. Kaganovych10
LOct 6 · 17:55V. Kaganovych1.807911101A. Lifanov1.9111119123LOct 6 · 16:25V. Kaganovych1.5355111122V. Hainiuk2.38111197113LOct 6 · 14:55V. Kaganovych2.10131111682I. Yelfimov1.67157911113LOct 6 · 13:25V. Kaganovych2.251156101V. Sharpai1.5781111123WOct 5 · 19:55V. Chumak1.911191191V. Kaganovych1.8051113113LOct 5 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.671111113V. Kaganovych2.109550WOct 5 · 17:25A. Yakovenko1.5358130V. Kaganovych2.381111153WOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113LOct 5 · 13:25O. Korobov1.501111113V. Kaganovych2.505780LSep 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.1011311113V. Kaganovych1.67711971
F. Chashchin10
WOct 6 · 18:25F. Chashchin1.67111193133V. Hainiuk2.10571111112LOct 6 · 17:25F. Chashchin2.50111061192V. Sharpai1.50812114113LOct 6 · 15:55F. Chashchin2.75815140A. Lifanov1.401117163LOct 6 · 13:55F. Chashchin1.7312881182I. Yelfimov2.001011115113WSep 28 · 19:05A. Lifanov1.3611980F. Chashchin3.001311113LSep 28 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.67461111113F. Chashchin2.1011115792WSep 28 · 16:35O. Korobov1.911111351F. Chashchin1.8061311113LSep 28 · 14:35V. Hainiuk2.00511117143F. Chashchin1.73119811122WSep 28 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.40111211652F. Chashchin2.75814611113WSep 24 · 19:05F. Chashchin1.67111011113V. Sydorenko2.10412841
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