TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Kaganovych vs Volodymyr Hainiuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511511119117211
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:15 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Volodymyr Hainiuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 83 set 5, 2-11 · our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 61.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 71–47 Volodymyr Hainiuk Volodymyr Hainiuk has won 47 of their 118 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:1561.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
71-47 in 118
Kaganovych
Wrong
gap of 24 in 118, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1386 vs Hainiuk 1383
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 40% vs Hainiuk 20%
Kaganovych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 50% vs Hainiuk 30%
Kaganovych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -2 · Hainiuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kaganovych) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hainiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.533 / Hainiuk 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kaganovych)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251358
Kaganovych1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 130 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it83% 89 of 107
Hainiuk2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 48 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych7wins
AwayHainiuk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych100%3 of 3
AwayHainiuk42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych3Hainiuk7n = 10Hainiuk took 7 of 10
S2Kaganovych7Hainiuk3n = 10Kaganovych took 7 of 10
S3Kaganovych6Hainiuk4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Kaganovych6Hainiuk3n = 9Kaganovych took 6 of 9
S5Kaganovych2Hainiuk1n = 3Kaganovych took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychHainiukK − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.738.0+1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychHainiukBasisWin rate · lifetime331 / 554 vs 361 / 67259.8%53.7%331 / 554 vs 361 / 672Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.53/Hainiuk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hainiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 15:25V. Kaganovych3961111113V. Hainiuk32116961
WSep 29 · 17:35V. Kaganovych501011117113V. Hainiuk4212751172
LSep 28 · 19:35V. Kaganovych27581131V. Hainiuk4211119113
WSep 22 · 16:25V. Kaganovych4414117123V. Hainiuk4012711101
LSep 21 · 19:35V. Kaganovych4881311882V. Hainiuk501111611113
WSep 15 · 15:35V. Kaganovych4211911113V. Hainiuk36811891
WSep 14 · 19:35V. Kaganovych44121110113V. Hainiuk351071261
LSep 8 · 15:35V. Kaganovych238870V. Hainiuk331111113
WSep 7 · 19:35V. Kaganovych3961111113V. Hainiuk31118391
WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych41411411113V. Hainiuk3911411492
V. Kaganovych10
LOct 6 · 19:25V. Kaganovych1.735650F. Chashchin2.001111113LOct 6 · 17:55V. Kaganovych1.807911101A. Lifanov1.9111119123LOct 6 · 14:55V. Kaganovych2.10131111682I. Yelfimov1.67157911113LOct 6 · 13:25V. Kaganovych2.251156101V. Sharpai1.5781111123WOct 5 · 19:55V. Chumak1.911191191V. Kaganovych1.8051113113LOct 5 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.671111113V. Kaganovych2.109550WOct 5 · 17:25A. Yakovenko1.5358130V. Kaganovych2.381111153WOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113LOct 5 · 13:25O. Korobov1.501111113V. Kaganovych2.505780LSep 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.1011311113V. Kaganovych1.67711971
V. Hainiuk10
LOct 6 · 20:25V. Hainiuk2.107260I. Yelfimov1.671111113LOct 6 · 18:25F. Chashchin1.67111193133V. Hainiuk2.10571111112WOct 6 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.20711611113V. Sharpai1.6111711192LOct 6 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.401111113V. Hainiuk2.757420LOct 5 · 20:25V. Hainiuk2.107111371I. Yelfimov1.6711615113LOct 5 · 18:25A. Yakovenko1.611101111113V. Hainiuk2.2011124962LOct 5 · 16:25O. Korobov1.6191111113V. Hainiuk2.20116991LOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113WOct 5 · 14:25V. Chumak1.67117341V. Hainiuk2.1081111113LSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113
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