TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Hainiuk vs Ivan Yelfimov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711211611––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeIvan Yelfimov to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Ivan Yelfimov @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingVolodymyr Hainiuk above · Ivan Yelfimov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 48 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Ivan Yelfimov at 58.6%
48 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Hainiuk 0–4 Ivan Yelfimov Volodymyr Hainiuk has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:1358.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Yelfimov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Yelfimov
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hainiuk 1384 vs Yelfimov 1601
Yelfimov
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hainiuk 40% vs Yelfimov 80%
Yelfimov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hainiuk 30% vs Yelfimov 90%
Yelfimov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hainiuk -1 · Yelfimov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Yelfimov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yelfimov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHainiuk 2.10 / Yelfimov 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Yelfimov)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251389
Hainiuk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 48 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Yelfimov1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite82% won 14 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHainiuk0wins
AwayYelfimov4wins
1 of 4 to a deciderYelfimov leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHainiukn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayYelfimov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hainiuk0Yelfimov4n = 4Yelfimov took 4 of 4
S2Hainiuk1Yelfimov3n = 4Yelfimov took 3 of 4
S3Hainiuk2Yelfimov2n = 4split evenly
S4Hainiuk1Yelfimov2n = 3Yelfimov took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricHainiukYelfimovH − YBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match37.842.5−4.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHainiukYelfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 672 vs 28 / 3953.7%71.8%361 / 672 vs 28 / 39Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
YelfimovHainiuk 2.10/Yelfimov 1.67
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Yelfimov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Ivan Yelfimov @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
0–3
Yelfimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 5 · 20:25V. Hainiuk387111371I. Yelfimov4311615113
LSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk5399111592I. Yelfimov521111613113
LSep 22 · 20:25V. Hainiuk2761560I. Yelfimov391117113
LSep 21 · 15:35V. Hainiuk33491191I. Yelfimov3611113113
V. Hainiuk10
LOct 6 · 18:25F. Chashchin1.67111193133V. Hainiuk2.10571111112WOct 6 · 16:25V. Kaganovych1.5355111122V. Hainiuk2.38111197113WOct 6 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.20711611113V. Sharpai1.6111711192LOct 6 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.401111113V. Hainiuk2.757420LOct 5 · 20:25V. Hainiuk2.107111371I. Yelfimov1.6711615113LOct 5 · 18:25A. Yakovenko1.611101111113V. Hainiuk2.2011124962LOct 5 · 16:25O. Korobov1.6191111113V. Hainiuk2.20116991LOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113WOct 5 · 14:25V. Chumak1.67117341V. Hainiuk2.1081111113LSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113
I. Yelfimov10
WOct 6 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.4011611113V. Sharpai2.75811841LOct 6 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.4411911113I. Yelfimov2.63711351WOct 6 · 14:55V. Kaganovych2.10131111682I. Yelfimov1.67157911113WOct 6 · 13:55F. Chashchin1.7312881182I. Yelfimov2.001011115113WOct 5 · 20:25V. Hainiuk2.107111371I. Yelfimov1.6711615113WOct 5 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.671111113V. Kaganovych2.109550WOct 5 · 16:55V. Chumak1.57611116132I. Yelfimov2.25114611153WOct 5 · 14:55O. Korobov1.4061411862I. Yelfimov2.751112911113WOct 5 · 13:55A. Yakovenko1.8371180I. Yelfimov1.831113113WSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113
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