Vitalii Kaganovych vs Ivan Yelfimov 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Vitalii Kaganovych

Home

2.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

7111141012311––

Ivan Yelfimov

Away

1.57

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%

Graded at full time

Ivan Yelfimov to win

62.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Ivan Yelfimov below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 10-12

Set 4 · 3-11

Point 69 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Ivan Yelfimov at 62.9%

69 points played in total.

H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 0–5 Ivan Yelfimov Vitalii Kaganovych has won 0 of their 5 meetings.

Last 5 · 0–5Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Yelfimov

Kaganovych 2.25/Yelfimov 1.57

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

62.9%

Yelfimov · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Yelfimov won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:44

62.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 0.8pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Yelfimov

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

0-5 in 5

Yelfimov

Correct

gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kaganovych 1359 vs Yelfimov 1541

Yelfimov

Correct

both rated, 181 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kaganovych 20% vs Yelfimov 60%

Yelfimov

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kaganovych 20% vs Yelfimov 50%

Yelfimov

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kaganovych -2 · Yelfimov -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Yelfimov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kaganovych: form 20%, the price implies 44%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKaganovych 2.25 / Yelfimov 1.571

Signal prob.37% / 63%

Edge (Yelfimov)-0.8pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 5 meetings

HomeKaganovych0wins

AwayYelfimov5wins

3 of 5 to a deciderYelfimov leads 5–0, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKaganovychn = 1, below the 3 needed

AwayYelfimov100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kaganovych1Yelfimov4n = 5Yelfimov took 4 of 5

S2Kaganovych2Yelfimov3n = 5Yelfimov took 3 of 5

S3Kaganovych2Yelfimov3n = 5Yelfimov took 3 of 5

S4Kaganovych1Yelfimov2n = 3Yelfimov took 2 of 3

S5Kaganovych0Yelfimov3n = 3Yelfimov took 3 of 3

How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away360%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away240%

These 5 meetings

MetricKaganovychYelfimovK − YBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match35.242.8−7.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKaganovychYelfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 553 vs 32 / 4859%66.7%326 / 553 vs 32 / 48Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281531

Kaganovych2.25

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog38% won 19 of 50

Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16

Yelfimov1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite75% won 18 of 24

Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11

Up 1–0, closes it90% 17 of 19

Vitalii Kaganovych vs Ivan Yelfimov 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Vitalii Kaganovych vs Ivan Yelfimov 1-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.