TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Yelfimov vs Andrii Lifanov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111171151513––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Yelfimov above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 82 set 4, 15-13 · our read held Andrii Lifanov at 60.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Yelfimov 0–4 Andrii Lifanov Ivan Yelfimov has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4360.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lifanov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Lifanov
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yelfimov 1543 vs Lifanov 1531
Yelfimov
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yelfimov 40% vs Lifanov 60%
Lifanov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yelfimov 60% vs Lifanov 80%
Lifanov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yelfimov -3 · Lifanov -1
Yelfimov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Lifanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYelfimov 2.375 / Lifanov 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Lifanov)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261449
Yelfimov2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 9 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Lifanov1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 118 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it98% 60 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it86% 90 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeYelfimov0wins
AwayLifanov4wins
Lifanov leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYelfimovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLifanov100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yelfimov1Lifanov3n = 4Lifanov took 3 of 4
S2Yelfimov2Lifanov2n = 4split evenly
S3Yelfimov1Lifanov3n = 4Lifanov took 3 of 4
S4Yelfimov0Lifanov4n = 4Lifanov took 4 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away4100%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricYelfimovLifanovY − LBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match30.239.2−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYelfimovLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 43 vs 235 / 41467.4%56.8%29 / 43 vs 235 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovYelfimov 2.38/Lifanov 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Yelfimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 6 · 16:55I. Yelfimov26711351A. Lifanov4211911113
LSep 29 · 14:05I. Yelfimov31691151A. Lifanov3811115113
LSep 22 · 18:55I. Yelfimov35116991A. Lifanov3851111113
LSep 21 · 17:05I. Yelfimov29611841A. Lifanov3911611113
I. Yelfimov10
LOct 8 · 16:25I. Yelfimov1.3681171162V. Hainiuk3.00118118113LOct 8 · 14:55I. Yelfimov1.57511651V. Slabyshev2.2511711113LOct 8 · 13:25I. Yelfimov1.3077150V. Sharpai3.401111173WOct 6 · 20:25V. Hainiuk2.107260I. Yelfimov1.671111113WOct 6 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.4011611113V. Sharpai2.75811841LOct 6 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.4411911113I. Yelfimov2.63711351WOct 6 · 14:55V. Kaganovych2.10131111682I. Yelfimov1.67157911113WOct 6 · 13:55F. Chashchin1.7312881182I. Yelfimov2.001011115113WOct 5 · 20:25V. Hainiuk2.107111371I. Yelfimov1.6711615113WOct 5 · 18:55I. Yelfimov1.671111113V. Kaganovych2.109550
A. Lifanov10
LOct 8 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.915190V. Slabyshev1.801111113WOct 8 · 15:55V. Chumak1.6781111742A. Lifanov2.10118711113WOct 8 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.3311911113V. Hainiuk3.25711451LOct 6 · 19:55A. Lifanov1.678480V. Sharpai2.101111113WOct 6 · 17:55V. Kaganovych1.807911101A. Lifanov1.9111119123WOct 6 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.4411911113I. Yelfimov2.63711351WOct 6 · 15:55F. Chashchin2.75815140A. Lifanov1.401117163WOct 6 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.401111113V. Hainiuk2.757420WSep 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.1011311113V. Kaganovych1.67711971WSep 29 · 17:05A. Lifanov1.80711117113V. Sharpai1.9111581192
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