Valentyn Chumak vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Valentyn Chumak

Home

1.91

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

11210121113117119

Vitalii Kaganovych

Away

1.80

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Valentyn Chumak to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Vitalii Kaganovych below

Set 1 · 11-2

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 11-7

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 97 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Valentyn Chumak at 54.0%

97 points played in total.

H2H Valentyn Chumak 45–55 Vitalii Kaganovych Valentyn Chumak has won 45 of their 100 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Chumak

Chumak 1.91/Kaganovych 1.80

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Chumak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Chumak won

The pickConfirm

Sealed 16:46

54.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909

clears by 1.6pp

52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Kaganovych

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

45-55 in 100

Kaganovych

Wrong

gap of 10 in 100, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Chumak 1455 vs Kaganovych 1368

Chumak

Correct

both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Chumak 40% vs Kaganovych 20%

Chumak

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Chumak 50% vs Kaganovych 30%

Chumak

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Chumak -1 · Kaganovych -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chumak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kaganovych: form 20%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChumak 1.909 / Kaganovych 1.80

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Chumak)+1.6pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeChumak5wins

AwayKaganovych5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeChumak66.7%4 of 6

AwayKaganovych75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Chumak6Kaganovych4n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10

S2Chumak5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly

S3Chumak4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10

S4Chumak3Kaganovych4n = 7Kaganovych took 4 of 7

S5Chumak2Kaganovych1n = 3Chumak took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricChumakKaganovychC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.6+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricChumakKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 557 vs 326 / 55252.6%59.1%293 / 557 vs 326 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281872

Chumak1.91

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog44% won 55 of 124

Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 62

Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30

Kaganovych1.80

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite64% won 127 of 199

Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65

Up 1–0, closes it85% 87 of 103

Valentyn Chumak vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Valentyn Chumak vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.