Oleksii Korobov vs Ivan Yelfimov 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleksii Korobov

Home

1.62

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1159112111311115

Ivan Yelfimov

Away

2.20

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:16 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%

Graded at full time

Oleksii Korobov to win

54.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Ivan Yelfimov below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 2-11

Set 4 · 13-11

Set 5 · 11-5

Point 89 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Oleksii Korobov at 54.9%

89 points played in total.

H2H Oleksii Korobov 1–1 Ivan Yelfimov Dead even across their 2 meetings.

Last 2 · 1–1Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Korobov

Korobov 1.61/Yelfimov 2.20

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54.9%

Korobov · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Korobov won

The pickConfirm

Sealed 17:16

54.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 7.0pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Korobov

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

1-1 in 2

—

Too close

2 played, under the floor of 3

Rating (G2)

Korobov 1526 vs Yelfimov 1555

Yelfimov

Wrong

both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Korobov 80% vs Yelfimov 60%

Korobov

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Korobov 60% vs Yelfimov 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Korobov +1 · Yelfimov -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Korobov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Yelfimov: form 60%, the price implies 45%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKorobov 1.615 / Yelfimov 2.20

Signal prob.55% / 45%

Edge (Korobov)-7.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 2 meetings

HomeKorobov1wins

AwayYelfimov1wins

2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed

3–0Straight, home0

3–1Four sets, home0

3–2Decider, home1

2–3Decider, away1

1–3Four sets, away0

0–3Straight, away0

These 2 meetings

MetricKorobovYelfimovK − YBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.548.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKorobovYelfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 162 vs 32 / 4762.4%68.1%101 / 162 vs 32 / 47Avg sets wonper match2.32.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match

Setka Cup · #13281507

Korobov1.61

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite70% won 59 of 84

Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35

Up 1–0, closes it79% 41 of 52

Yelfimov2.20

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog56% won 10 of 18

Down 0–1, comes back40% 4 of 10

Oleksii Korobov vs Ivan Yelfimov 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksii Korobov vs Ivan Yelfimov 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.