Ivan Kozachuk vs Denys Pesternikov 3-0

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Ivan Kozachuk

Home

2.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

114116117––––

Denys Pesternikov

Away

1.57

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%

Graded at full time

Denys Pesternikov to win

59.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Pesternikov below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 11-7

Point 50 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 59.7%

50 points played in total.

H2H Ivan Kozachuk 144–156 Denys Pesternikov Ivan Kozachuk has won 144 of their 300 meetings.

Last 10 · 2–8Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Pesternikov

Kozachuk 2.25/Pesternikov 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

59.7%

Pesternikov · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Kozachuk won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:10

59.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 4.0pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Pesternikov

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

144-156 in 300

Pesternikov

Wrong

gap of 12 in 300, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kozachuk 1675 vs Pesternikov 1784

Pesternikov

Wrong

both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kozachuk 40% vs Pesternikov 60%

Pesternikov

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kozachuk 50% vs Pesternikov 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Kozachuk -2 · Pesternikov +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKozachuk 2.25 / Pesternikov 1.571

Signal prob.40% / 60%

Edge (Pesternikov)-4.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKozachuk2wins

AwayPesternikov8wins

3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKozachuk33.3%1 of 3

AwayPesternikov85.7%6 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kozachuk3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10

S2Kozachuk2Pesternikov8n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10

S3Kozachuk2Pesternikov8n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10

S4Kozachuk2Pesternikov4n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6

S5Kozachuk2Pesternikov1n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away440%

These 10 meetings

MetricKozachukPesternikovK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.338.8−7.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKozachukPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime560 / 1108 vs 593 / 109150.5%54.4%560 / 1108 vs 593 / 1091Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.8per match

Setka Cup · #13281568

Kozachuk2.25

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog36% won 86 of 240

Down 0–1, comes back20% 27 of 134

Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 79

Pesternikov1.57

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite67% won 225 of 338

Up 2–0, closes it95% 127 of 134

Up 1–0, closes it82% 182 of 221

Ivan Kozachuk vs Denys Pesternikov 3-0 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Ivan Kozachuk vs Denys Pesternikov 3-0 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.