TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Hura vs Ivan Kozachuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171012611411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched: 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 83.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 1–4 Ivan Kozachuk Orest Hura has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:5083.8%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 2.0pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1578 vs Kozachuk 1686
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 20% vs Kozachuk 60%
Kozachuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 50% vs Kozachuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura +1 · Kozachuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% · Strong (leans Kozachuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 4.50 / Kozachuk 1.166
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Kozachuk)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261154
Hura4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 41 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Kozachuk1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 116 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it82% 86 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHura1wins
AwayKozachuk4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKozachuk leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHuran = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKozachuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura1Kozachuk4n = 5Kozachuk took 4 of 5
S2Hura1Kozachuk4n = 5Kozachuk took 4 of 5
S3Hura1Kozachuk4n = 5Kozachuk took 4 of 5
S4Hura1Kozachuk2n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricHuraKozachukH − KBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match28.439.4−11.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 808 vs 560 / 110952.2%50.5%422 / 808 vs 560 / 1109Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukHura 4.50/Kozachuk 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.8%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 19 · 09:35O. Hura29115941I. Kozachuk4181111113
LSep 18 · 16:05O. Hura197750I. Kozachuk331111113
LSep 8 · 04:55O. Hura29571161I. Kozachuk4211119113
LNov 16 · 09:05O. Hura175660I. Kozachuk331111113
WNov 7 · 01:30O. Hura48911312133I. Kozachuk481151110112
O. Hura10
LOct 9 · 00:30O. Hura7.008413111D. Pesternikov1.08111111133WOct 8 · 21:30O. Hura3.40119611113D. Shcherbak1.3091111952LOct 8 · 20:00O. Hura2.2011311111O. Pavlyuk1.6171113133LOct 8 · 03:15O. Hura1.83135111072R. Lazebnyi1.831111812113LOct 8 · 01:15M. Smyrnov2.2512913113O. Hura1.5710111191LOct 7 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.001316113O. Hura1.73111490WOct 7 · 22:15O. Hura2.2511126113N. Kovalchuk1.576101171WOct 7 · 21:15O. Mitla2.008920O. Hura1.731111113WOct 6 · 02:30V. Vlasenko2.2512590O. Hura1.571411113WOct 6 · 01:30Y. Shmyndra2.201831081O. Hura1.61161112113
I. Kozachuk10
WOct 8 · 22:00I. Kozachuk1.801111113O. Pavlyuk1.918730WOct 8 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.53911691I. Kozachuk2.3811911113LOct 6 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.509111111113I. Kozachuk1.5011913452WOct 6 · 09:25I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LOct 6 · 08:25I. Kozachuk2.256660D. Pesternikov1.571111113LOct 6 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.50111312462A. Zeniuk1.5013111011113LOct 6 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.91101070D. Shcherbak1.801212113LOct 5 · 17:55D. Shcherbak1.831111113I. Kozachuk1.839890LOct 5 · 16:55I. Kozachuk2.635540S. Rak1.441111113WOct 5 · 15:55I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.506990
Upcoming Matches
O. Hura
I. Kozachuk
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.