Oleksandr Leonenko vs Andrii Kurtenko 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleksandr Leonenko

Home

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1191210911119––

Andrii Kurtenko

Away

1.57

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:33 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%

Graded at full time

Andrii Kurtenko to win

58.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Andrii Kurtenko below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 12-10

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 82 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 58.9%

82 points played in total.

H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 33–38 Andrii Kurtenko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 33 of their 71 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kurtenko

Leonenko 2.25/Kurtenko 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.9%

Kurtenko · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Leonenko won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:33

58.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 4.8pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Kurtenko

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

33-38 in 71

Kurtenko

Wrong

gap of 5 in 71, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Leonenko 1451 vs Kurtenko 1475

Kurtenko

Wrong

both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Leonenko 20% vs Kurtenko 60%

Kurtenko

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Leonenko 40% vs Kurtenko 60%

Kurtenko

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Leonenko +1 · Kurtenko +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kurtenko) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Leonenko: form 20%, the price implies 44%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLeonenko 2.25 / Kurtenko 1.571

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Kurtenko)-4.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLeonenko4wins

AwayKurtenko6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLeonenko80%4 of 5

AwayKurtenko100%5 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Leonenko5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly

S2Leonenko3Kurtenko7n = 10Kurtenko took 7 of 10

S3Leonenko4Kurtenko6n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10

S4Leonenko3Kurtenko5n = 8Kurtenko took 5 of 8

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away550%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricLeonenkoKurtenkoL − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.938.4−3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLeonenkoKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 824 vs 357 / 68251.1%52.4%421 / 824 vs 357 / 682Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281108

Leonenko2.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog42% won 72 of 170

Down 0–1, comes back23% 22 of 94

Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56

Kurtenko1.57

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite59% won 134 of 229

Up 2–0, closes it90% 74 of 82

Up 1–0, closes it79% 99 of 126

Oleksandr Leonenko vs Andrii Kurtenko 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksandr Leonenko vs Andrii Kurtenko 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.