Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Maksym Stetsenko 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Sergii Skhabitskiy

Home

2.20

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1210151711131012––

Maksym Stetsenko

Away

1.62

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched: 59.1% is still 59.1%

Graded at full time

Maksym Stetsenko to win

59.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Maksym Stetsenko below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 15-17

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 10-12

Point 100 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 59.1%

100 points played in total.

H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 21–18 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 18 of their 39 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Stetsenko

Skhabitskiy 2.20/Stetsenko 1.61

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

59.1%

Stetsenko · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Stetsenko won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 09:48

59.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 2.8pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Stetsenko

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

21-18 in 39

Skhabitskiy

Wrong

gap of 3 in 39, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Skhabitskiy 1376 vs Stetsenko 1423

Stetsenko

Correct

both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Skhabitskiy 80% vs Stetsenko 40%

Skhabitskiy

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Skhabitskiy 70% vs Stetsenko 40%

Skhabitskiy

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Skhabitskiy -1 · Stetsenko -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Stetsenko) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stetsenko: form 40%, the price implies 62%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.20 / Stetsenko 1.615

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Stetsenko)-2.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSkhabitskiy6wins

AwayStetsenko4wins

3 of 10 to a deciderSkhabitskiy leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSkhabitskiy75%3 of 4

AwayStetsenko50%3 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Skhabitskiy4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10

S2Skhabitskiy6Stetsenko4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10

S3Skhabitskiy3Stetsenko7n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10

S4Skhabitskiy4Stetsenko3n = 7Skhabitskiy took 4 of 7

S5Skhabitskiy3Stetsenko0n = 3Skhabitskiy took 3 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoSkhabitskiy − StetsenkoBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.438.8−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSkhabitskiyStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 1083 vs 459 / 88044.1%52.2%478 / 1083 vs 459 / 880Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match

Setka Cup · #13281054

Skhabitskiy2.20

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog40% won 94 of 238

Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 124

Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 76

Stetsenko1.61

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite67% won 119 of 179

Up 2–0, closes it97% 71 of 73

Up 1–0, closes it87% 90 of 104

Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Maksym Stetsenko 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Maksym Stetsenko 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.