TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Vasily Kondratenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711119118116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Vasily Kondratenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 41–48 Vasily Kondratenko Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 41 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kondratenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-48 in 89
Kondratenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1355 vs Kondratenko 1272
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 60% vs Kondratenko 40%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 70% vs Kondratenko 50%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy +1 · Kondratenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skhabitskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 1.833 / Kondratenko 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13271073
Skhabitskiy1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kondratenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy7wins
AwayKondratenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkhabitskiy leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy83.3%5 of 6
AwayKondratenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy6Kondratenko4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy6Kondratenko4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy6Kondratenko4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy5Kondratenko3n = 8Skhabitskiy took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyKondratenkoS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.337.5+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyKondratenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 1085 vs 249 / 55144.1%45.2%478 / 1085 vs 249 / 551Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiySkhabitskiy 1.83/Kondratenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy381115123V. Kondratenko31813100
WAug 21 · 11:35S. Skhabitskiy4061111123V. Kondratenko291135101
WAug 12 · 06:35S. Skhabitskiy50111297113V. Kondratenko50910111192
WAug 9 · 13:00S. Skhabitskiy4211911113V. Kondratenko30611941
WJul 24 · 09:30S. Skhabitskiy43111011113V. Kondratenko33712681
LJul 15 · 11:30S. Skhabitskiy49811119102V. Kondratenko49118711123
LJul 8 · 11:05S. Skhabitskiy163490V. Kondratenko331111113
WJul 3 · 05:00S. Skhabitskiy4171112113V. Kondratenko361181071
WJul 2 · 12:05S. Skhabitskiy4411147123V. Kondratenko4291211101
LJul 1 · 16:30S. Skhabitskiy30118831V. Kondratenko4291111113
S. Skhabitskiy10
WOct 10 · 10:30V. Mukhin3.009101101S. Skhabitskiy1.3611129113WOct 10 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy1.361111123S. Osipov3.0079100LOct 10 · 07:00S. Skhabitskiy1.405990V. Stukalov2.751111113WOct 10 · 05:00S. Skhabitskiy1.40101111113V. Varchenko2.75129841WOct 9 · 11:50O. Ovsiienko1.671511141S. Skhabitskiy2.1017118113LOct 9 · 10:50S. Skhabitskiy2.10116861O. Mytsyk1.6781111113WOct 9 · 09:50S. Skhabitskiy2.38131112113M. Stetsenko1.531561061WOct 9 · 08:20S. Skhabitskiy2.201111917113V. Smyk1.6158111972WOct 9 · 06:20S. Skhabitskiy2.501111113E. Populovskyi1.504640WOct 6 · 17:10P. Ostrovskyi2.753790S. Skhabitskiy1.401111113
V. Kondratenko10
LOct 10 · 07:30V. Mukhin2.0011911143V. Kondratenko1.735118121LOct 10 · 06:30V. Kondratenko1.57411511102S. Osipov2.25117117123WOct 10 · 05:30V. Stukalov2.25811781V. Kondratenko1.5711611113LOct 7 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.251113113V. Kondratenko1.5741140WOct 7 · 10:05V. Kondratenko2.251111108133O. Mytsyk1.57931211112LOct 7 · 09:05V. Kondratenko1.7341311992S. Hovorunets2.001111611113LOct 7 · 07:35V. Kondratenko1.6111711572V. Stukalov2.20811711113WOct 7 · 05:33V. Kondratenko1.531111113S. Semenets2.387970WOct 4 · 16:15M. Khalenko1.5712115862V. Kondratenko2.251021111113WOct 4 · 15:10K. Klymenko1.5311111171V. Kondratenko2.3813813113
Upcoming Matches
S. Skhabitskiy
Nothing scheduled
V. Kondratenko
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