TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Kondratenko vs Sergey Osipov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111175111171012
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 89 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 61.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 0–2 Sergey Osipov Vasily Kondratenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2361.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kondratenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1280 vs Osipov 1199
Kondratenko
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 40% vs Osipov 60%
Osipov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 70% vs Osipov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko +1 · Osipov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Kondratenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osipov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 1.571 / Osipov 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kondratenko)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270650
Kondratenko1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 89 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 63 of 80
Osipov2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKondratenko0wins
AwayOsipov2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderOsipov leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKondratenkoOsipovK − OBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match33.041.5−8.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 550 vs 132 / 27345.3%48.4%249 / 550 vs 132 / 273Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKondratenko 1.57/Osipov 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Osipov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 10 · 06:30V. Kondratenko41411511102S. Osipov48117117123
LSep 27 · 12:40V. Kondratenko2586110S. Osipov351111133
V. Kondratenko10
WOct 10 · 05:30V. Stukalov2.25811781V. Kondratenko1.5711611113LOct 7 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.251113113V. Kondratenko1.5741140WOct 7 · 10:05V. Kondratenko2.251111108133O. Mytsyk1.57931211112LOct 7 · 09:05V. Kondratenko1.7341311992S. Hovorunets2.001111611113LOct 7 · 07:35V. Kondratenko1.6111711572V. Stukalov2.20811711113WOct 7 · 05:33V. Kondratenko1.531111113S. Semenets2.387970WOct 4 · 16:15M. Khalenko1.5712115862V. Kondratenko2.251021111113WOct 4 · 15:10K. Klymenko1.5311111171V. Kondratenko2.3813813113WOct 4 · 13:40V. Kondratenko1.67931111113V. Stukalov2.1011117462WOct 4 · 12:10V. Kondratenko1.361111133V. Varchenko3.0079110
S. Osipov10
LOct 10 · 04:30V. Mukhin1.5781111113S. Osipov2.25119871WOct 9 · 11:30S. Osipov1.281171112113D. Kunchurov3.5051161492LOct 9 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko2.201112113S. Osipov1.6171050WOct 9 · 07:30P. Ostrovskyi2.20107111152S. Osipov1.61121177113WOct 9 · 06:30S. Osipov1.171271113133O. Efimov4.501411711112WOct 9 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko7.00781151S. Osipov1.0811117113WOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450LOct 3 · 10:05O. Stopin1.731211411113S. Osipov2.0014411442WOct 3 · 08:05V. Varchenko1.448770S. Osipov2.631111113LOct 3 · 07:05S. Osipov1.73111271172P. Ostrovskyi2.00914116113
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