Patrik Muller vs Pavel Moulis 0-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Patrik Muller

Home

3.40

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

711911811––––

Pavel Moulis

Away

1.30

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:22 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%

Graded at full time

Pavel Moulis to win

75.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Pavel Moulis below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 8-11

Point 57 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Pavel Moulis at 75.1%

57 points played in total.

H2H Patrik Muller 0–1 Pavel Moulis Patrik Muller has won 0 of their 1 meetings.

Last 1 · 0–1Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Moulis

Muller 3.40/Moulis 1.30

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

75.1%

Moulis · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Moulis won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 05:22

75.1%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30

short by 1.8pp

76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.30 (72%)

Moulis

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

0-1 in 1

—

Too close

1 played, under the floor of 3

Rating (G2)

Muller 1175 vs Moulis 1339

Moulis

Correct

both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Muller 40% vs Moulis 80%

Moulis

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Muller 40% vs Moulis 60%

Moulis

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Muller -1 · Moulis +4

Moulis

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Moulis) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Muller: form 40%, the price implies 29%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMuller 3.40 / Moulis 1.30

Signal prob.25% / 75%

Edge (Moulis)-1.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 1 meeting

HomeMuller0wins

AwayMoulis1wins

Moulis leads 1–0.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed

3–0Straight, home0

3–1Four sets, home0

3–2Decider, home0

2–3Decider, away0

1–3Four sets, away1

0–3Straight, away0

This 1 meeting

MetricMullerMoulisMuller − MoulisBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match28.041.0−13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMullerMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 174 vs 191 / 43743.1%43.7%75 / 174 vs 191 / 437Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match

Setka Cup · #13281036

Muller3.40

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog40% won 23 of 57

Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31

Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19

Moulis1.30

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite54% won 35 of 65

Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20

Up 1–0, closes it76% 29 of 38

Patrik Muller vs Pavel Moulis 0-3 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Patrik Muller vs Pavel Moulis 0-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.