TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Moulis vs Marcel Cmil 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012118117116––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:48 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Marcel Cmil at 58.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 8–9 Marcel Cmil Pavel Moulis has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4858.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moulis 1290 vs Cmil 1308
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moulis 20% vs Cmil 0%
Moulis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moulis 40% vs Cmil 10%
Moulis
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moulis -3 · Cmil -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Cmil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 2.25 / Cmil 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Cmil)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276806
Moulis2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Cmil1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 85 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoulis2wins
AwayCmil8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis66.7%2 of 3
AwayCmil100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S2Moulis3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S3Moulis5Cmil4n = 9Moulis took 5 of 9
S4Moulis2Cmil3n = 5Cmil took 3 of 5
S5Moulis0Cmil3n = 3Cmil took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoulisCmilM − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.134.8−0.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 441 vs 355 / 66343.5%53.5%192 / 441 vs 355 / 663Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CmilMoulis 2.25/Cmil 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 19 · 10:30P. Moulis4791111882M. Cmil44116511113
LJul 25 · 13:30P. Moulis217680M. Cmil331111113
WJul 20 · 09:18P. Moulis4011711113M. Cmil26911421
LJul 20 · 06:00P. Moulis2711790M. Cmil351311113
LApr 24 · 12:58P. Moulis33116791M. Cmil4071111113
LApr 24 · 12:00P. Moulis269890M. Cmil331111113
LApr 13 · 08:40P. Moulis46510111192M. Cmil47111267113
WApr 13 · 06:30P. Moulis331111113M. Cmil207940
P. Moulis10
WOct 11 · 19:30J. Vrnak2.2063100P. Moulis1.611111123WOct 11 · 19:00P. Moulis2.001091111113J. Jnr1.7312114692LOct 6 · 08:38J. Krejcik2.2511511113P. Moulis1.57711881LOct 6 · 07:30P. Moulis1.8316100D. Sabuka1.831111123LOct 6 · 06:30P. Moulis1.679770J. Jnr2.101111113WOct 6 · 05:30P. Moulis1.6711119113J. Krejcik2.10431171LOct 5 · 13:05P. Moulis1.5391116482J. Jnr2.381161411113WOct 5 · 12:00P. Muller2.201011161P. Moulis1.6112117113WOct 5 · 11:00J. Jnr2.25159461P. Moulis1.57131111113LOct 5 · 09:30M. Holub2.3851111113P. Moulis1.53115951
M. Cmil10
WOct 11 · 18:30J. Vrnak2.63115111142M. Cmil1.44131149113LOct 9 · 21:00D. Sabuka1.501111113M. Cmil2.505760LOct 9 · 20:00M. Cmil2.0059100D. Sabuka1.731111123LOct 9 · 18:30R. Slunecko1.67913911113M. Cmil2.10111111852LOct 9 · 18:00K. Polak1.57111312113M. Cmil2.256111481LOct 8 · 08:33M. Cmil1.9111581182F. Fryml1.80811119113LOct 8 · 08:00M. Cmil1.8358111142J. Jnr1.83111189113LOct 8 · 06:30J. Puk1.671112113M. Cmil2.1091090WOct 8 · 06:00F. Fryml1.67114771M. Cmil2.1071111113LOct 7 · 16:44M. Cmil2.00411120F. Fryml1.731113143
Upcoming Matches
P. Moulis
M. Cmil
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