TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Moulis vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Pavel Moulis at 56.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 9–9 Jakub Dufek Jnr Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2356.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moulis 1301 vs Jnr 1298
Moulis
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moulis 60% vs Jnr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moulis 50% vs Jnr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moulis +1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Moulis) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 1.666 / Jnr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Moulis)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251058
Moulis1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 35 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it74% 29 of 39
Jnr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 84 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back29% 24 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoulis5wins
AwayJnr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis80%4 of 5
AwayJnr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S2Moulis5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S3Moulis7Jnr3n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S4Moulis3Jnr3n = 6split evenly
S5Moulis1Jnr3n = 4Jnr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoulisJnrM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.9+1.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 444 vs 250 / 49543.9%50.5%195 / 444 vs 250 / 495Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMoulis 1.67/Jnr 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:30P. Moulis239770J. Jnr331111113
LOct 5 · 13:05P. Moulis4891116482J. Jnr531161411113
WOct 5 · 11:00P. Moulis46131111113J. Jnr34159461
WOct 3 · 20:00P. Moulis4011611123J. Jnr294114101
WSep 22 · 13:05P. Moulis331111113J. Jnr155820
WSep 22 · 12:00P. Moulis491161011113J. Jnr4161112662
LSep 19 · 12:00P. Moulis5311111110102J. Jnr53813812123
LSep 17 · 11:00P. Moulis174490J. Jnr331111113
LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis3931111952J. Jnr49119711113
WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis351112123J. Jnr29910100
P. Moulis10
LOct 6 · 07:30P. Moulis1.8316100D. Sabuka1.831111123WOct 6 · 05:30P. Moulis1.6711119113J. Krejcik2.10431171LOct 5 · 13:05P. Moulis1.5391116482J. Jnr2.381161411113WOct 5 · 12:00P. Muller2.201011161P. Moulis1.6112117113WOct 5 · 11:00J. Jnr2.25159461P. Moulis1.57131111113LOct 5 · 09:30M. Holub2.3851111113P. Moulis1.53115951LOct 4 · 17:04V. Kucala2.381110117113P. Moulis1.5391231152WOct 4 · 15:30P. Moulis1.53951111113M. Holub2.3811117732LOct 4 · 14:30P. Moulis2.25411118102M. Cmil1.57118611123WOct 4 · 13:30P. Moulis1.53515911113V. Kucala2.38111311842
J. Jnr10
LOct 6 · 06:00D. Sabuka1.531111133J. Jnr2.3826110WOct 5 · 13:05P. Moulis1.5391116482J. Jnr2.381161411113WOct 5 · 11:30M. Holub2.0061111692J. Jnr1.73119811113LOct 5 · 11:00J. Jnr2.25159461P. Moulis1.57131111113WOct 5 · 10:00J. Jnr1.4061111113P. Muller2.75114871WOct 3 · 20:28J. Jnr1.731114113M. Holub2.0051280LOct 3 · 20:00P. Moulis1.6711611123J. Jnr2.104114101LOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172WOct 3 · 17:30M. Holub1.73137981J. Jnr2.00111111113LOct 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2.109760M. Melisek1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Moulis
Nothing scheduled
J. Jnr
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