Pavel Moulis vs Julius Krejcik 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 6Finished

Pavel Moulis

Home

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

114113911117––

Julius Krejcik

Away

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:23 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Pavel Moulis to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Julius Krejcik below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 11-3

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-7

Point 67 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Pavel Moulis at 55.8%

67 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 05:23

55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Moulis

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Moulis 1314 vs Krejcik 1344

Krejcik

Wrong

both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Moulis 40% vs Krejcik 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Moulis 50% vs Krejcik 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Moulis -1 · Krejcik +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Moulis) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Moulis form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMoulis 1.666 / Krejcik 2.10

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Moulis)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Setka Cup · #13250791

Moulis1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite53% won 35 of 66

Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20

Up 1–0, closes it74% 29 of 39

Krejcik2.10

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMoulisKrejcikBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 441 vs 29 / 5044%58%194 / 441 vs 29 / 50Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Moulis

Moulis 1.67/Krejcik 2.10

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

55.8%

Moulis · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Moulis won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

P. Moulis10