TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Filip Fryml vs Marcel Cmil 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117411711711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Fryml to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Fryml above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Filip Fryml at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Filip Fryml 7–6 Marcel Cmil Marcel Cmil has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5354.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fryml
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fryml 1341 vs Cmil 1373
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fryml 60% vs Cmil 40%
Fryml
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fryml 50% vs Cmil 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fryml +1 · Cmil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Fryml) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFryml 1.666 / Cmil 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fryml)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260789
Fryml1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 26 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Cmil2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 57 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back31% 19 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFryml6wins
AwayCmil4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFryml leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFryml60%3 of 5
AwayCmil40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fryml5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S2Fryml7Cmil3n = 10Fryml took 7 of 10
S3Fryml5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S4Fryml3Cmil6n = 9Cmil took 6 of 9
S5Fryml3Cmil1n = 4Fryml took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFrymlCmilF − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.3+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFrymlCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 158 vs 359 / 66251.3%54.2%81 / 158 vs 359 / 662Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FrymlFryml 1.67/Cmil 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fryml · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 06:00F. Fryml29114771M. Cmil4071111113
WOct 7 · 16:44F. Fryml381113143M. Cmil27411120
LOct 7 · 14:30F. Fryml354101291M. Cmil44111210113
WAug 27 · 08:00F. Fryml43101111113M. Cmil36127981
WJun 8 · 07:00F. Fryml57915139113M. Cmil511113111152
WApr 22 · 07:30F. Fryml49612911113M. Cmil45111011672
WMar 20 · 17:58F. Fryml4211911113M. Cmil34511991
LMar 20 · 15:30F. Fryml371111961M. Cmil4413911113
WFeb 25 · 13:54F. Fryml50111189113M. Cmil4798111182
LFeb 25 · 11:00F. Fryml4111113882M. Cmil45931111113
F. Fryml10
WOct 7 · 16:44M. Cmil2.00411120F. Fryml1.731113143LOct 7 · 15:30F. Fryml1.83119100M. Holub1.831311123LOct 7 · 14:30F. Fryml1.804101291M. Cmil1.91111210113WOct 7 · 13:30F. Fryml1.331111113A. Akopyan3.256990WSep 25 · 09:05D. Sabuka1.441011871F. Fryml2.6312911113WSep 25 · 07:30M. Holub1.73111181352F. Fryml2.00461115113LSep 25 · 07:00F. Fryml2.1011270D. Sabuka1.671311113WSep 25 · 06:00F. Fryml2.251111113L. Krutina1.576650LSep 23 · 08:39M. Holub1.9111911113F. Fryml1.80511861LSep 23 · 07:30L. Krutina1.7371111113F. Fryml2.00115781
M. Cmil10
LOct 8 · 06:30J. Puk1.671112113M. Cmil2.1091090LOct 7 · 16:44M. Cmil2.00411120F. Fryml1.731113143LOct 7 · 16:00M. Cmil1.4411716872A. Akopyan2.639111411113WOct 7 · 14:30F. Fryml1.804101291M. Cmil1.91111210113LOct 7 · 14:00M. Holub1.801111113M. Cmil1.915770WOct 5 · 21:03M. Cmil1.3011117153J. Mares3.403911131WOct 5 · 20:00V. Coubal2.25911591M. Cmil1.5711811113WOct 5 · 19:00J. Mares3.409811111M. Cmil1.3011117133WOct 5 · 17:30M. Vydra2.20811841M. Cmil1.6111911113WOct 4 · 16:36M. Cmil1.651181111123M. Holub2.10511139102
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