TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marcel Cmil vs David Sabuka 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5119111012––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 · our read held David Sabuka at 54.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 6–4 David Sabuka David Sabuka has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5354.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1353 vs Sabuka 1378
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 0% vs Sabuka 20%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 20% vs Sabuka 50%
Sabuka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil -5 · Sabuka -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sabuka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 2.00 / Sabuka 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sabuka)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266122
Cmil2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 58 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 40
Sabuka1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 63 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil6wins
AwaySabuka4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil57.1%4 of 7
AwaySabuka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil7Sabuka3n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S2Cmil4Sabuka6n = 10Sabuka took 6 of 10
S3Cmil4Sabuka6n = 10Sabuka took 6 of 10
S4Cmil4Sabuka4n = 8split evenly
S5Cmil4Sabuka2n = 6Cmil took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilSabukaC − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.742.2−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 664 vs 251 / 52653.9%47.7%358 / 664 vs 251 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaCmil 2.00/Sabuka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 09:10M. Cmil401181381D. Sabuka4471115113
LSep 28 · 06:30M. Cmil3611461232D. Sabuka518111110113
LSep 26 · 19:00M. Cmil216780D. Sabuka331111113
WSep 20 · 21:04M. Cmil341111123D. Sabuka2789100
LSep 20 · 18:30M. Cmil4411413972D. Sabuka539111111113
WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil511111114143D. Sabuka51613911122
WAug 20 · 09:03M. Cmil41511113113D. Sabuka4011681142
WAug 20 · 06:00M. Cmil3811123123D. Sabuka3761011101
WJul 26 · 19:00M. Cmil47711711113D. Sabuka4011711742
WJul 20 · 07:30M. Cmil5511121011113D. Sabuka4691412562
M. Cmil10
LOct 9 · 18:30R. Slunecko1.67913911113M. Cmil2.10111111852LOct 9 · 18:00K. Polak1.57111312113M. Cmil2.256111481LOct 8 · 08:33M. Cmil1.9111581182F. Fryml1.80811119113LOct 8 · 08:00M. Cmil1.8358111142J. Jnr1.83111189113LOct 8 · 06:30J. Puk1.671112113M. Cmil2.1091090WOct 8 · 06:00F. Fryml1.67114771M. Cmil2.1071111113LOct 7 · 16:44M. Cmil2.00411120F. Fryml1.731113143LOct 7 · 16:00M. Cmil1.4411716872A. Akopyan2.639111411113WOct 7 · 14:30F. Fryml1.804101291M. Cmil1.91111210113LOct 7 · 14:00M. Holub1.801111113M. Cmil1.915770
D. Sabuka10
LOct 9 · 19:00K. Polak2.201111118113D. Sabuka1.6191361192LOct 9 · 17:30R. Slunecko2.201111113D. Sabuka1.617860LOct 6 · 09:09J. Jnr3.0011711113D. Sabuka1.36611561WOct 6 · 07:30P. Moulis1.8316100D. Sabuka1.831111123LOct 6 · 07:00D. Sabuka1.80912781J. Krejcik1.91111011113WOct 6 · 06:00D. Sabuka1.531111133J. Jnr2.3826110WOct 3 · 20:58P. Moulis1.80124111182D. Sabuka1.91141185113LOct 3 · 19:30M. Holub1.83711114113D. Sabuka1.8311981172WOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172WOct 3 · 18:00D. Sabuka2.381115143P. Moulis1.53513120
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