TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Sabuka vs Marcel Cmil 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117116––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 · our read held David Sabuka at 63.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 5–6 Marcel Cmil David Sabuka has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Sabuka beat Cmil 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5763.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1391 vs Cmil 1340
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 40% vs Cmil 0%
Sabuka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 50% vs Cmil 20%
Sabuka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +1 · Cmil -6
Cmil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Sabuka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 1.50 / Cmil 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Sabuka)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271307
Sabuka1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 63 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Cmil2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 58 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSabuka5wins
AwayCmil5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSabuka50%2 of 4
AwayCmil50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Sabuka6Cmil4n = 10Sabuka took 6 of 10
S3Sabuka6Cmil4n = 10Sabuka took 6 of 10
S4Sabuka4Cmil3n = 7Sabuka took 4 of 7
S5Sabuka2Cmil3n = 5Cmil took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSabukaCmilS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.037.6+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 527 vs 357 / 66447.8%53.8%252 / 527 vs 357 / 664Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSabuka 1.50/Cmil 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 20:00D. Sabuka341111123M. Cmil2459100
WSep 28 · 09:10D. Sabuka4471115113M. Cmil401181381
WSep 28 · 06:30D. Sabuka518111110113M. Cmil3611461232
WSep 26 · 19:00D. Sabuka331111113M. Cmil216780
LSep 20 · 21:04D. Sabuka2789100M. Cmil341111123
WSep 20 · 18:30D. Sabuka539111111113M. Cmil4411413972
LSep 1 · 08:00D. Sabuka51613911122M. Cmil511111114143
LAug 20 · 09:03D. Sabuka4011681142M. Cmil41511113113
LAug 20 · 06:00D. Sabuka3761011101M. Cmil3811123123
LJul 26 · 19:00D. Sabuka4011711742M. Cmil47711711113
D. Sabuka10
WOct 9 · 20:00M. Cmil2.0059100D. Sabuka1.731111123LOct 9 · 19:00K. Polak2.201111118113D. Sabuka1.6191361192LOct 9 · 17:30R. Slunecko2.201111113D. Sabuka1.617860LOct 6 · 09:09J. Jnr3.0011711113D. Sabuka1.36611561WOct 6 · 07:30P. Moulis1.8316100D. Sabuka1.831111123LOct 6 · 07:00D. Sabuka1.80912781J. Krejcik1.91111011113WOct 6 · 06:00D. Sabuka1.531111133J. Jnr2.3826110WOct 3 · 20:58P. Moulis1.80124111182D. Sabuka1.91141185113LOct 3 · 19:30M. Holub1.83711114113D. Sabuka1.8311981172WOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172
M. Cmil10
LOct 9 · 20:00M. Cmil2.0059100D. Sabuka1.731111123LOct 9 · 18:30R. Slunecko1.67913911113M. Cmil2.10111111852LOct 9 · 18:00K. Polak1.57111312113M. Cmil2.256111481LOct 8 · 08:33M. Cmil1.9111581182F. Fryml1.80811119113LOct 8 · 08:00M. Cmil1.8358111142J. Jnr1.83111189113LOct 8 · 06:30J. Puk1.671112113M. Cmil2.1091090WOct 8 · 06:00F. Fryml1.67114771M. Cmil2.1071111113LOct 7 · 16:44M. Cmil2.00411120F. Fryml1.731113143LOct 7 · 16:00M. Cmil1.4411716872A. Akopyan2.639111411113WOct 7 · 14:30F. Fryml1.804101291M. Cmil1.91111210113
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