Hryhoriy Oliynyk vs Valerii Hel 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Hryhoriy Oliynyk

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

116711117118––

Valerii Hel

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:52 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%

Graded at full time

Valerii Hel to win

55.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingHryhoriy Oliynyk above · Valerii Hel below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 72 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Valerii Hel at 55.9%

72 points played in total.

H2H Hryhoriy Oliynyk 8–4 Valerii Hel Valerii Hel has won 4 of their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Hel

Oliynyk 2.10/Hel 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

55.9%

Hel · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Oliynyk won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 04:52

55.9%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.1pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Hel

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

8-4 in 12

Oliynyk

Correct

gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Oliynyk 1115 vs Hel 1196

Hel

Wrong

both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Oliynyk 40% vs Hel 20%

Oliynyk

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Oliynyk 40% vs Hel 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Oliynyk -1 · Hel -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Hel) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hel: form 20%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsOliynyk 2.10 / Hel 1.666

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Hel)-4.1pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeOliynyk7wins

AwayHel3wins

3 of 10 to a deciderOliynyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeOliynyk75%6 of 8

AwayHeln = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Oliynyk8Hel2n = 10Oliynyk took 8 of 10

S2Oliynyk7Hel3n = 10Oliynyk took 7 of 10

S3Oliynyk6Hel4n = 10Oliynyk took 6 of 10

S4Oliynyk3Hel3n = 6split evenly

S5Oliynyk1Hel2n = 3Hel took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricOliynykHelO − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.1+4.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricOliynykHelBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 244 vs 139 / 26448%52.7%117 / 244 vs 139 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.137.4per match

Setka Cup · #13280897

Oliynyk2.10

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog31% won 18 of 59

Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 40

Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31

Hel1.67

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 08)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite52% won 51 of 99

Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33

Up 1–0, closes it68% 38 of 56

Hryhoriy Oliynyk vs Valerii Hel 3-1 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Hryhoriy Oliynyk vs Valerii Hel 3-1 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.