TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Melnik vs Valerii Hel 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113116115––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 47 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Valerii Hel at 54.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 8–11 Valerii Hel Orest Melnik has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2454.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Hel
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1300 vs Hel 1214
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Hel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Hel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -2 · Hel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 2.10 / Hel 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hel)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260964
Melnik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 36 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 53
Hel1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik4wins
AwayHel6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHel75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik2Hel8n = 10Hel took 8 of 10
S2Melnik7Hel3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Melnik4Hel6n = 10Hel took 6 of 10
S4Melnik4Hel3n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikHelM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.937.1−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikHelBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 369 vs 139 / 26247.4%53.1%175 / 369 vs 139 / 262Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HelMelnik 2.10/Hel 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 13:55O. Melnik4616118113V. Hel331451131
WSep 23 · 05:25O. Melnik341211113V. Hel2310760
LSep 22 · 16:25O. Melnik199640V. Hel331111113
WSep 17 · 12:55O. Melnik4281111123V. Hel351195101
LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik187380V. Hel331111113
LSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik325116101V. Hel3811411123
LAug 5 · 05:25O. Melnik42611121122V. Hel49117146113
LAug 4 · 13:55O. Melnik407131191V. Hel4411157113
WJul 29 · 05:25O. Melnik4381113113V. Hel351171161
LJul 21 · 13:55O. Melnik438111591V. Hel4811917113
O. Melnik10
LOct 8 · 08:25O. Melnik2.75116101192S. Kryvoshyi1.40511126113LOct 8 · 06:55O. Melnik2.001011113102O. Maslovskyi1.73129811123WOct 8 · 04:55O. Melnik1.50951111113M. Dunas2.5011116262WOct 7 · 18:55O. Melnik1.531711113M. Dunas2.3815960LOct 7 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36111498113O. Melnik3.00612111112LOct 7 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.73111011123O. Melnik2.007128101WOct 7 · 13:55O. Melnik2.0016118113V. Hel1.731451131WOct 7 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv3.2511680O. Melnik1.331311113WOct 5 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3611112113O. Maksymkiv3.00481191WOct 5 · 09:25H. Oliynyk4.0011541192O. Melnik1.22911119113
V. Hel10
WOct 8 · 07:25O. Maksymkiv2.20118251V. Hel1.6191111113LOct 8 · 06:25V. Hel1.801121291S. Kryvoshyi1.9181114113LOct 8 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi3.0012114113V. Hel1.361091161WOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.80671151V. Hel1.9111119113LOct 7 · 17:25M. Dunas2.2581312113V. Hel1.5711111061WOct 7 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi1.8057100V. Hel1.911111123LOct 7 · 13:55O. Melnik2.0016118113V. Hel1.731451131WOct 7 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.757730V. Hel1.401111113WOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5751050V. Hel2.251112113LOct 2 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.801311123V. Hel1.91118100
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