TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Melnik vs Serhii Kryvoshyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1156111012116911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:14 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kryvoshyi to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Serhii Kryvoshyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Serhii Kryvoshyi at 67.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 12–63 Serhii Kryvoshyi Orest Melnik has won 12 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1467.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kryvoshyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-63 in 75
Kryvoshyi
Correct
gap of 51 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1311 vs Kryvoshyi 1304
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Kryvoshyi 80%
Kryvoshyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 70% vs Kryvoshyi 50%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Kryvoshyi +4
Kryvoshyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Kryvoshyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 2.75 / Kryvoshyi 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Kryvoshyi)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261158
Melnik2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 36 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 53
Kryvoshyi1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 63 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it84% 53 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik2wins
AwayKryvoshyi8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKryvoshyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik33.3%1 of 3
AwayKryvoshyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik3Kryvoshyi7n = 10Kryvoshyi took 7 of 10
S2Melnik3Kryvoshyi7n = 10Kryvoshyi took 7 of 10
S3Melnik4Kryvoshyi6n = 10Kryvoshyi took 6 of 10
S4Melnik3Kryvoshyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Melnik1Kryvoshyi3n = 4Kryvoshyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikKryvoshyiM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.440.7−7.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikKryvoshyiBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 368 vs 254 / 56147.6%45.3%175 / 368 vs 254 / 561Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KryvoshyiMelnik 2.75/Kryvoshyi 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Kryvoshyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kryvoshyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 16:55O. Melnik41612111112S. Kryvoshyi53111498113
LSep 23 · 07:25O. Melnik3941111762S. Kryvoshyi46118511113
WSep 22 · 14:25O. Melnik491011611113S. Kryvoshyi4512911942
LSep 16 · 08:55O. Melnik3811251192S. Kryvoshyi51911119113
LSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik28117641S. Kryvoshyi4181111113
WSep 2 · 07:25O. Melnik351111133S. Kryvoshyi2678110
LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik184590S. Kryvoshyi331111113
LAug 19 · 05:25O. Melnik238870S. Kryvoshyi331111113
LAug 18 · 14:55O. Melnik2815850S. Kryvoshyi391711113
LAug 5 · 06:55O. Melnik359511101S. Kryvoshyi4011116123
O. Melnik10
WOct 8 · 09:25O. Melnik2.101111113V. Hel1.673650LOct 8 · 06:55O. Melnik2.001011113102O. Maslovskyi1.73129811123WOct 8 · 04:55O. Melnik1.50951111113M. Dunas2.5011116262WOct 7 · 18:55O. Melnik1.531711113M. Dunas2.3815960LOct 7 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36111498113O. Melnik3.00612111112LOct 7 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.73111011123O. Melnik2.007128101WOct 7 · 13:55O. Melnik2.0016118113V. Hel1.731451131WOct 7 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv3.2511680O. Melnik1.331311113WOct 5 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3611112113O. Maksymkiv3.00481191WOct 5 · 09:25H. Oliynyk4.0011541192O. Melnik1.22911119113
S. Kryvoshyi10
WOct 8 · 06:25V. Hel1.801121291S. Kryvoshyi1.9181114113WOct 8 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv2.759720S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113WOct 7 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi3.2574111142S. Kryvoshyi1.33111174113WOct 7 · 16:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36111498113O. Melnik3.00612111112LOct 7 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi1.8057100V. Hel1.911111123WOct 7 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.4481211113O. Maksymkiv2.631110581LOct 7 · 12:25S. Kryvoshyi1.80711127132M. Dunas1.911181011153LSep 30 · 10:55D. Kasian1.2211118113S. Kryvoshyi4.00471131LSep 30 · 08:25V. Hel2.1071111113S. Kryvoshyi1.67116881LSep 30 · 06:25V. Kheresko2.001211113S. Kryvoshyi1.7310390
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