TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Danylo Kasian vs Serhii Kryvoshyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117811113––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched: 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Kasian above · Serhii Kryvoshyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 66 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Danylo Kasian at 81.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Kasian 5–1 Serhii Kryvoshyi Serhii Kryvoshyi has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5181.0%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 0.8pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Kasian
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasian 1405 vs Kryvoshyi 1291
Kasian
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasian 60% vs Kryvoshyi 0%
Kasian
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasian 70% vs Kryvoshyi 20%
Kasian
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasian -1 · Kryvoshyi -5
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Kasian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryvoshyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasian 1.222 / Kryvoshyi 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Kasian)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13218463
Kasian1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 27 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Kryvoshyi4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 25 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKasian5wins
AwayKryvoshyi1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKasian leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasian75%3 of 4
AwayKryvoshyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasian4Kryvoshyi2n = 6Kasian took 4 of 6
S2Kasian5Kryvoshyi1n = 6Kasian took 5 of 6
S3Kasian4Kryvoshyi2n = 6Kasian took 4 of 6
S4Kasian2Kryvoshyi1n = 3Kasian took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKasianKryvoshyiKasian − KryvoshyiBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.232.0+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasianKryvoshyiBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 85 vs 254 / 56361.2%45.1%52 / 85 vs 254 / 563Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KasianKasian 1.22/Kryvoshyi 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 29 · 16:55D. Kasian4291111113S. Kryvoshyi36119881
WSep 22 · 15:55D. Kasian331111113S. Kryvoshyi239950
LSep 21 · 10:05D. Kasian351161171S. Kryvoshyi4491113113
WSep 16 · 04:25D. Kasian341111123S. Kryvoshyi2174100
WSep 15 · 18:55D. Kasian331111113S. Kryvoshyi247980
WAug 25 · 16:25D. Kasian52911811133S. Kryvoshyi44115116112
D. Kasian10
LSep 30 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.73119911113D. Kasian2.0061111942WSep 30 · 07:55D. Kasian1.611111113D. Kozoriz2.206570WSep 30 · 06:55V. Hel2.5091131192D. Kasian1.50116119113LSep 30 · 05:25D. Kasian2.003970V. Kheresko1.731111113WSep 29 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.61412791D. Kasian2.20111011113WSep 29 · 16:55D. Kasian1.2291111113S. Kryvoshyi4.00119881WSep 29 · 15:55D. Kasian1.6711711113V. Hel2.10711921WSep 29 · 14:25D. Kasian1.731312113K. Tkachenko2.00111090LSep 29 · 12:25D. Kasian1.83711391D. Ponomarenko1.8311611113WSep 22 · 18:25O. Melnik2.006890D. Kasian1.731111113
S. Kryvoshyi10
LSep 30 · 08:25V. Hel2.1071111113S. Kryvoshyi1.67116881LSep 30 · 06:25V. Kheresko2.001211113S. Kryvoshyi1.7310390LSep 30 · 04:25D. Ponomarenko1.531111133S. Kryvoshyi2.3857110LSep 29 · 18:55S. Kryvoshyi2.001114891D. Ponomarenko1.7391611113LSep 29 · 16:55D. Kasian1.2291111113S. Kryvoshyi4.00119881WSep 29 · 14:55D. Kozoriz1.615590S. Kryvoshyi2.201111113WSep 29 · 13:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831214113V. Hel1.83101250LSep 29 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.571111113S. Kryvoshyi2.256790LSep 23 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi4.005270A. Dulich1.221111113LSep 23 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.83411761V. Hel1.8311811113
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