TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Hel vs Mykhailo Dunas 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111147111210511
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Dunas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Mykhailo Dunas @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Mykhailo Dunas at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 1–2 Mykhailo Dunas Valerii Hel has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:2354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dunas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1204 vs Dunas 1281
Dunas
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 40% vs Dunas 60%
Dunas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 50% vs Dunas 70%
Dunas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel -1 · Dunas +3
Dunas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dunas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.909 / Dunas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dunas)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261187
Hel1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 33 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Dunas1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 34 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHel1wins
AwayDunas2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDunas leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel33.3%1 of 3
AwayDunasn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel3Dunas0n = 3Hel took 3 of 3
S2Hel1Dunas2n = 3Dunas took 2 of 3
S3Hel1Dunas2n = 3Dunas took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHelDunasH − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match39.335.3+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 263 vs 63 / 12252.9%51.6%139 / 263 vs 63 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DunasHel 1.91/Dunas 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Dunas · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Mykhailo Dunas @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
2–3
Dunas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 7 · 17:25V. Hel3811111061M. Dunas4481312113
LOct 2 · 13:55V. Hel4711881192M. Dunas42511114113
WAug 4 · 15:54V. Hel331111113M. Dunas204790
V. Hel10
LOct 8 · 09:25O. Melnik2.101111113V. Hel1.673650WOct 8 · 07:25O. Maksymkiv2.20118251V. Hel1.6191111113LOct 8 · 06:25V. Hel1.801121291S. Kryvoshyi1.9181114113LOct 8 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi3.0012114113V. Hel1.361091161WOct 7 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.80671151V. Hel1.9111119113LOct 7 · 17:25M. Dunas2.2581312113V. Hel1.5711111061WOct 7 · 15:55S. Kryvoshyi1.8057100V. Hel1.911111123LOct 7 · 13:55O. Melnik2.0016118113V. Hel1.731451131WOct 7 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2.757730V. Hel1.401111113WOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5751050V. Hel2.251112113
M. Dunas10
WOct 8 · 09:55M. Dunas2.101111173S. Kryvoshyi1.6744150WOct 8 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi3.009280M. Dunas1.361111113WOct 8 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv1.738560M. Dunas2.001111113LOct 8 · 04:55O. Melnik1.50951111113M. Dunas2.5011116262LOct 7 · 18:55O. Melnik1.531711113M. Dunas2.3815960WOct 7 · 17:25M. Dunas2.2581312113V. Hel1.5711111061LOct 7 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv1.801111113M. Dunas1.919990WOct 7 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi3.2512951142M. Dunas1.331011118113WOct 7 · 12:25S. Kryvoshyi1.80711127132M. Dunas1.911181011153WOct 4 · 18:25M. Dunas1.36121211123V. Vasyliev3.0010145101
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