Grzegorz Mucha vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 13Finished

Grzegorz Mucha

Home

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

8111171199111210

Zbigniew Nocun

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:16 and never touched: 54.8% is still 54.8%

Graded at full time

Zbigniew Nocun to win

54.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Zbigniew Nocun below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 99 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 54.8%

99 points played in total.

H2H Grzegorz Mucha 8–17 Zbigniew Nocun Grzegorz Mucha has won 8 of their 25 meetings.

Last 10 · 2–8Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Nocun

Mucha 2.10/Nocun 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.8%

Nocun · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Mucha won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 01:16

54.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 5.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Nocun

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

8-17 in 25

Nocun

Wrong

gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Mucha 1400 vs Nocun 1353

Mucha

Correct

both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mucha 40% vs Nocun 60%

Nocun

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mucha 50% vs Nocun 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Mucha +1 · Nocun +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMucha 2.10 / Nocun 1.666

Signal prob.45% / 55%

Edge (Nocun)-5.2pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 5h before this match

Nocun beat Mucha 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMucha2wins

AwayNocun8wins

3 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMucha25%1 of 4

AwayNocun83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Mucha4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10

S2Mucha5Nocun5n = 10split evenly

S3Mucha5Nocun5n = 10split evenly

S4Mucha3Nocun6n = 9Nocun took 6 of 9

S5Mucha0Nocun3n = 3Nocun took 3 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away550%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMuchaNocunM − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.540.3−2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMuchaNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 408 vs 734 / 123750.3%59.3%205 / 408 vs 734 / 1237Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match

TT Elite Series · #13280415

Mucha2.10

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog37% won 65 of 178

Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 99

Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 63

Nocun1.67

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As favourite66% won 332 of 506

Up 2–0, closes it94% 163 of 173

Up 1–0, closes it85% 238 of 279

Grzegorz Mucha vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Grzegorz Mucha vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.