John Misal vs Sven Happek 3-1 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TTOchsenhausen, Germany

Played Oct 12Finished

John Misal

Home

1.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

119115711113––

Sven Happek

Away

3.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched: 75.0% is still 75.0%

Graded at full time

John Misal to win

75.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJohn Misal above · Sven Happek below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 11-3

Point 68 set 4, 11-3 · our read held John Misal at 75.0%

68 points played in total.

H2H John Misal 1–0 Sven Happek Sven Happek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.

Last 1 · 1–0Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Misal

Misal 1.25/Happek 3.75

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

75%

Misal · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Misal won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 17:21

75.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25

short by 5.0pp

80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.25 (75%)

Misal

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

1-0 in 1

—

Too close

1 played, under the floor of 3

Rating (G2)

Misal 1762 vs Happek 1300

Misal

Correct

both rated, 462 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Misal 80% vs Happek 40%

Misal

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Misal 70% vs Happek 20%

Misal

Correct

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Misal +1 · Happek -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Misal) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Happek: form 40%, the price implies 27%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMisal 1.25 / Happek 3.75

Signal prob.75% / 25%

Edge (Misal)-5.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 1 meeting

HomeMisal1wins

AwayHappek0wins

Misal leads 1–0.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed

3–0Straight, home1

3–1Four sets, home0

3–2Decider, home0

2–3Decider, away0

1–3Four sets, away0

0–3Straight, away0

This 1 meeting

MetricMisalHappekM − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.027.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMisalHappekBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 23 vs 48 / 18065.2%26.7%15 / 23 vs 48 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.41.3per matchAvg pointsper match41.431.2per match

Challenger Series TT · #13279964

Misal1.25

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Happek3.75

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog7% won 4 of 60

Down 0–1, comes back4% 2 of 50

Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43

John Misal vs Sven Happek 3-1 · Challenger Series TT

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

John Misal vs Sven Happek 3-1 · Challenger Series TT

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.