John Misal vs Linus Dreykorn 3-1 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Oct 8Finished

John Misal

Home

1.10

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

118117711118––

Linus Dreykorn

Away

6.50

At publish

Lost last 16

Form at publish

0–10Last 10Lost last 16

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:57 and never touched: 85.5% is still 85.5%

Graded at full time

John Misal to win

85.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJohn Misal above · Linus Dreykorn below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 9-7

Point 71 set 4, 9-7 · our read held John Misal at 85.5%

71 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 16:57

85.5%Our read90.9%to break even at 1.10

short by 5.4pp

90.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.10 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.10 (86%)

Misal

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Misal 1738 vs Dreykorn 1009

Misal

Correct

both rated, 729 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Misal 60% vs Dreykorn 0%

Misal

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Misal 60% vs Dreykorn 0%

Misal

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Misal +3 · Dreykorn -16

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 86% · Strong (leans Misal) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dreykorn form (0%) is below what odds imply (15%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMisal 1.10 / Dreykorn 6.50

Signal prob.86% / 15%

Edge (Misal)-5.4pp (anti-value)

Challenger Series TT · #13231850

Misal1.10

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

Dreykorn6.50

0%won 0 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 16

oldest → newest

10%takes the first set · 1 of 10

As underdog4% won 1 of 23

Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 18

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMisalDreykornBasisWin rate · lifetime9 / 14 vs 3 / 3464.3%8.8%9 / 14 vs 3 / 34Avg sets wonper match2.40.8per matchAvg pointsper match42.326.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Misal

Misal 1.10/Dreykorn 6.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

85.5%

Misal · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Misal won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

J. Misal10