John Misal vs Marius Henninger 3-1 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Oct 8Finished

John Misal

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

117711119114––

Marius Henninger

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 14

Form at publish

10–0Last 10Won last 14

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:19 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Marius Henninger to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJohn Misal above · Marius Henninger below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 71 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Marius Henninger at 55.8%

71 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 10:19

55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Henninger

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Misal 1617 vs Henninger 1786

Henninger

Wrong

both rated, 169 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Misal 20% vs Henninger 100%

Henninger

Wrong

80pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Misal 50% vs Henninger 100%

Henninger

Wrong

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Misal -3 · Henninger +14

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Henninger) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Henninger form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMisal 2.10 / Henninger 1.666

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Henninger)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Challenger Series TT · #13231860

Misal2.10

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

Henninger1.67

100%won 10 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 14

oldest → newest

56%takes the first set · 5 of 9

As favourite91% won 19 of 21

Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10

Up 1–0, closes it100% 16 of 16

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMisalHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 9 vs 52 / 9166.7%57.1%6 / 9 vs 52 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.834.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Henninger

Misal 2.10/Henninger 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

55.8%

Henninger · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Misal won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

J. Misal10