TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Marius Henninger vs Xavier Dixon 3-1 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 13
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119114118––
Xavier Dixon
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Xavier Dixon below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Marius Henninger at 64.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–0 Xavier Dixon Xavier Dixon has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5764.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1786 vs Dixon 1627
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 100% vs Dixon 60%
Henninger
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 100% vs Dixon 70%
Henninger
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +13 · Dixon -1
Henninger
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Henninger) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dixon form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.444 / Dixon 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Henninger)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13256423
Henninger1.44
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 13
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite91% won 19 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Dixon2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHenninger1wins
AwayDixon0wins
Henninger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHenningerDixonH − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.032.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerDixonBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 91 vs 39 / 7657.1%51.3%52 / 91 vs 39 / 76Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.44/Dixon 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 8 · 09:00M. Henninger4181111113X. Dixon32119481
M. Henninger10
WOct 8 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0511118113L. Dreykorn8.50641181WSep 11 · 10:59M. Henninger2.3891111113D. Cheaib1.53116871WSep 11 · 09:30M. Henninger—1111113M. Stefanidis—4350WSep 11 · 08:30T. Pellny2.50711211M. Henninger1.5011911113WSep 10 · 17:00D. Cheaib1.331110191M. Henninger3.2581211113WSep 10 · 16:00M. Henninger—511117113M. Stefanidis—11891132WSep 10 · 13:00M. Henninger1.131111113M. Bott5.509230WSep 10 · 11:30K. Moosmann6.5010770M. Henninger1.101211113WSep 10 · 09:30S. Amann8.000M. Henninger1.063WSep 10 · 07:30D. Zech7.003890M. Henninger1.081111113
X. Dixon10
LOct 8 · 07:00B. Lei—1111143X. Dixon—78120WMar 20 · 11:45T. Saltzer2.351111310112X. Dixon1.50771112133LMar 20 · 10:45X. Dixon1.4012310121J. Lama2.75101112143WMar 20 · 08:30X. Dixon1.751111113T. Saltzer1.956990WMar 19 · 17:30X. Dixon1.33111111113L. Kraus3.25651341WMar 19 · 15:30X. Dixon1.081111113B. Brnovic7.008590WMar 19 · 13:30A. Moreno8.004580X. Dixon1.061111113WMar 19 · 11:30M. Hardikar3.25117361X. Dixon1.3391111113LMar 19 · 10:00X. Dixon6.00812551R. Turrini1.11111011113WMar 19 · 08:30X. Dixon1.36101111133J. Lama3.001255111
Upcoming Matches
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