TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
John Misal vs Balazs Lei 2-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 8Finished
John Misal
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119119911911
Balazs Lei
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:15 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeBalazs Lei to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJohn Misal above · Balazs Lei below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Balazs Lei at 57.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H John Misal 0–1 Balazs Lei John Misal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:1557.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lei
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Misal 40% vs Lei 80%
Lei
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misal 60% vs Lei 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Misal -2 · Lei +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Lei) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lei form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisal 2.20 / Lei 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Lei)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13262730
Misal2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Lei1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMisal0wins
AwayLei1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderLei leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMisalLeiM − LBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match49.051.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisalLeiBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 9 vs 5 / 1066.7%50%6 / 9 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeiMisal 2.20/Lei 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Lei · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 8 · 08:30J. Misal4991111992B. Lei51119911113
J. Misal10
LOct 8 · 06:30J. Misal3.40971161M. Aguirre1.3011118113LSep 10 · 02:00J. Misal7.0013141012112S. Gnanasekaran1.0811161210133WMar 10 · 11:40T. Colvin1.4411911101J. Misal2.6391113123LMar 10 · 10:43J. Misal1.83111410131J. Shim1.83131212153WMar 10 · 09:00J. Misal1.35111187113J. Lama2.9598111172WMar 9 · 18:00J. Misal1.2511811113A. Moreno3.75411571LMar 9 · 16:00J. Misal3.00179111152J. Shim1.361511138113WMar 9 · 15:00J. Misal5.501111113R. Turrini1.136780WMar 9 · 11:30J. Misal—1111163S. Happek—76140WMar 9 · 09:30J. Misal2.25119118113D. Parmar1.5721151162
B. Lei10
WOct 8 · 07:00B. Lei—1111143X. Dixon—78120WApr 28 · 19:10S. Gulomov—412681B. Lei—111011113LJan 30 · 16:25B. Lei3.40129511102S. Gnanasekaran1.301011119123WJan 30 · 10:20S. Suravajjula1.40911981B. Lei2.7511411113WJan 29 · 15:20J. Rzihauschek3.255930B. Lei1.331111113LOct 15 · 18:40B. Lei2.7031220P. Sirucek1.401114113WOct 15 · 12:25L. Lehtola4.073340B. Lei1.181111113LOct 13 · 11:45B. Lei5.004050S. Gauzy1.141111113LSep 18 · 16:50Y. Uda1.80812117113B. Lei1.91111051132WSep 18 · 10:20E. Vos1.83910121192B. Lei1.831112109113
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