Rafael Turrini vs John Misal 3-2 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TTOchsenhausen, Germany

Played Oct 12Finished

Rafael Turrini

Home

1.30

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

2119111614117119

John Misal

Away

3.40

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%

Graded at full time

Rafael Turrini to win

72.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingRafael Turrini above · John Misal below

Set 1 · 2-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 16-14

Set 4 · 11-7

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 101 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Rafael Turrini at 72.3%

101 points played in total.

H2H Rafael Turrini 0–1 John Misal Rafael Turrini has won 0 of their 1 meetings.

Last 1 · 0–1Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Turrini

Turrini 1.30/Misal 3.40

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

72.3%

Turrini · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Turrini won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:55

72.3%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30

short by 4.6pp

76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.30 (72%)

Turrini

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

0-1 in 1

—

Too close

1 played, under the floor of 3

Rating (G2)

Turrini 2017 vs Misal 1770

Turrini

Correct

both rated, 246 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Turrini 80% vs Misal 60%

Turrini

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Turrini 80% vs Misal 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Turrini +3 · Misal +3

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Turrini) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Misal: form 60%, the price implies 29%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsTurrini 1.30 / Misal 3.40

Signal prob.72% / 28%

Edge (Turrini)-4.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 1 meeting

HomeTurrini0wins

AwayMisal1wins

Misal leads 1–0.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed

3–0Straight, home0

3–1Four sets, home0

3–2Decider, home0

2–3Decider, away0

1–3Four sets, away0

0–3Straight, away1

This 1 meeting

MetricTurriniMisalT − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match21.033.0−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricTurriniMisalBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 260 vs 14 / 2185.4%66.7%222 / 260 vs 14 / 21Avg sets wonper match2.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.541.0per match

Challenger Series TT · #13280000

Turrini1.30

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite87% won 60 of 69

Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40

Up 1–0, closes it96% 48 of 50

Misal3.40

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Rafael Turrini vs John Misal 3-2 · Challenger Series TT

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Rafael Turrini vs John Misal 3-2 · Challenger Series TT

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.