TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Peter Chvojka vs Dominik Stefek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 23-Czech 12 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:42 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Peter Chvojka @ 1.91 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 0–1 Dominik Stefek Peter Chvojka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 11:42Sent to Pro: Peter Chvojka @ 1.91 · Won
54.0%Our read44.4%to break even at 2.25
clears by 9.6pp44.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.25 they are the same number)
What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chvojka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1409 vs Stefek 1346
Chvojka
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 60% vs Stefek 20%
Chvojka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 60% vs Stefek 40%
Chvojka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka +3 · Stefek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 1.571 / Stefek 2.25
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stefek)+9.6pp
TT Cup · #13277275
Chvojka1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 44 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Stefek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 33 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back27% 8 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChvojka0wins
AwayStefek1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderStefek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChvojkaStefekC − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.046.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 349 vs 67 / 13846.4%48.6%162 / 349 vs 67 / 138Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaChvojka 1.57/Stefek 2.25
Hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Peter Chvojka @ 1.91 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 27 · 10:10P. Chvojka4111611852D. Stefek46711611113
P. Chvojka10
WOct 11 · 13:10P. Chvojka2.101311133V. Reska1.67117110WOct 11 · 10:40V. Reska1.6711101171P. Chvojka2.1013124113WOct 11 · 10:10J. Sindler1.734116111P. Chvojka2.0011611133WOct 11 · 08:39J. Sindler1.61114791P. Chvojka2.2091111113LOct 11 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7312114113P. Chvojka2.001071151LOct 11 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.8311411113P. Chvojka1.83811891LOct 11 · 06:10P. Chvojka2.251310871P. Jokiel1.57111211113WOct 7 · 21:08P. Chvojka1.67101111113T. Ogrocki2.10128741LOct 7 · 20:10J. Vanous1.8041111123P. Chvojka1.911178101WOct 7 · 19:10P. Chvojka1.731111123T. Ogrocki2.0088100
D. Stefek10
WOct 11 · 12:38J. Sindler1.80771261D. Stefek1.91111110113LOct 11 · 11:10D. Stefek1.83911281J. Sindler1.8311911113LOct 11 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113D. Stefek2.387650LOct 9 · 12:39D. Stefek1.5797120P. Sturma2.251111143WOct 9 · 12:15D. Stefek2.251111113P. Sturma1.574590LOct 9 · 10:45O. Skvor1.6711121114113D. Stefek2.10810131682LOct 9 · 10:15J. Sindler1.91101111113D. Stefek1.80129681WOct 9 · 09:15D. Stefek1.6781111123L. Snr2.101139101WOct 9 · 07:45D. Stefek1.67111512113P. Sturma2.1013131071LOct 9 · 06:45D. Stefek1.7311113662L. Snr2.00961111113
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