TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Stefek vs Patrik Sturma 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched: 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 51 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Patrik Sturma at 56.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 14–9 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Stefek beat Sturma 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1156.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Stefek
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1385 vs Sturma 1302
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Sturma 20%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Sturma 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -2 · Sturma -4
Sturma
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Sturma) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.25 / Sturma 1.571
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Sturma)-7.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266756
Stefek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 32 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Sturma1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 70 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it53% 39 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwaySturma5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek40%2 of 5
AwaySturma40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Stefek6Sturma4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S4Stefek6Sturma3n = 9Stefek took 6 of 9
S5Stefek3Sturma4n = 7Sturma took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSturmaStefek − SturmaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.345.6−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 135 vs 448 / 92349.6%48.5%67 / 135 vs 448 / 923Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaStefek 2.25/Sturma 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 12:15D. Stefek331111113P. Sturma184590
WOct 9 · 07:45D. Stefek49111512113P. Sturma4313131071
LOct 6 · 18:10D. Stefek51101211992P. Sturma521210811113
WOct 6 · 16:40D. Stefek44113811113P. Sturma4491111762
LOct 6 · 14:40D. Stefek473101111122P. Sturma52111269143
WOct 1 · 10:15D. Stefek46491111113P. Sturma4311118762
LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek531310155102P. Sturma5911121311123
LAug 30 · 10:40D. Stefek301163101P. Sturma4281111123
WAug 20 · 09:40D. Stefek484121011113P. Sturma50111012982
LAug 19 · 13:15D. Stefek521110101382P. Sturma537121211113
D. Stefek10
LOct 9 · 12:39D. Stefek1.5797120P. Sturma2.251111143LOct 9 · 10:45O. Skvor1.6711121114113D. Stefek2.10810131682LOct 9 · 10:15J. Sindler1.91101111113D. Stefek1.80129681WOct 9 · 09:15D. Stefek1.6781111123L. Snr2.101139101WOct 9 · 07:45D. Stefek1.67111512113P. Sturma2.1013131071LOct 9 · 06:45D. Stefek1.7311113662L. Snr2.00961111113WOct 9 · 05:45D. Stefek1.501111113R. Zajac2.508580LOct 6 · 20:34D. Stefek1.44781191M. Dolezal2.6311117113WOct 6 · 19:40M. Dolezal2.108870D. Stefek1.671111113LOct 6 · 19:10L. Zustina2.20111111113D. Stefek1.61135761
P. Sturma10
WOct 9 · 12:39D. Stefek1.5797120P. Sturma2.251111143LOct 9 · 11:15P. Sturma2.101181211102J. Sindler1.67911147123LOct 9 · 09:45O. Skvor1.5081211143P. Sturma2.5011109121LOct 9 · 08:45P. Sturma1.619111031R. Zajac2.2011912113LOct 9 · 07:45D. Stefek1.67111512113P. Sturma2.1013131071WOct 9 · 07:15R. Zajac2.6311791172P. Sturma1.44811117113WOct 9 · 06:15P. Sturma1.53129911123L. Snr2.381011117102WOct 6 · 21:05L. Zustina1.44117561P. Sturma2.6371111113LOct 6 · 20:10P. Sturma1.736770L. Zustina2.001111113WOct 6 · 18:40M. Dolezal1.805780P. Sturma1.911111113
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